IAMC-Documentation - User contributions [en]

Socio-economic drivers - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-11-07T21:56:01Z

Volker Krey: short SSP intro added to socio-economic driver section

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Socio-economic drivers are typically informed by a scenario narrative that in qualitative terms describes the overall logic behind the scenarios. In the case of MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, see O’Neill et al., 2014 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_oneill_new_2014]]) provide this overall scenario logic based on which the main socio-economic drivers, [[Population_-_MESSAGE-GLOBIOM|population]] and [[Economic_activity_-_MESSAGE-GLOBIOM|GDP]], have been quantified. The subsections of this chapter describe how these quantitative drivers are used in MESSAGE-GLOBIOM.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-11-07T15:17:12Z

Volker Krey:

MESSAGE-GLOBIOM includes two types of carbon dioxide removal options, i.e. reforestation/afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Decision making on afforestation/reforestation is included in the GLOBIOM model based on the Global Forest Model (G4M).

In the energy system representation of MESSAGE four different processes for BECCS exist.
* electricity generation (incl. CHP): biomass IGCC power plant with CCS
* synthetic natural gas production: biomass gasification with CCS
* hydrogen production: biomass gasification with CCS
* biofuel production: Fischer-Tropsch biomass-to-liquids with CCS

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-11-07T15:06:24Z

Volker Krey: CDR page added

MESSAGE-GLOBIOM includes two types of carbon dioxide removal options, i.e. afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

BECCS is an option in four different processes
* electricity generation (incl. CHP): biomass IGCC power plant with CCS
* synthetic natural gas production: biomass gasification with CCS
* hydrogen production: biomass gasification with CCS
* biofuel production: Fischer-Tropsch biomass-to-liquids with CCS

Population - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-27T21:09:59Z

Volker Krey: demographic development split from GDP growth

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Demographic development has, next to economic growth, strong implications for the anticipated mitigation and adaptation challenges. For example, a larger, poorer population will have more difficulties to adapt to the detrimental effects of climate change (O’Neill et al., 2014 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_oneill_new_2014]]). The primary drivers of future energy demand in MESSAGE are projections of total population and GDP at purchasing power parity, denoted as GDP (PPP). In addition to total population, the urban/rural split of population is relevant for the MESSAGE-Access version of the model which distinguishes rural and urban population with different household incomes in developing country regions.

Demographic projections used in MESSAGE-GLOBIOM are based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) at the country level [https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome SSP database]. Population growth evolves in response to how fertility, mortality, migration, and education of various social strata are assumed to change over time. In SSP2, global population peaks at 9.4 billion people around 2070, and slowly declines thereafter (KC and Lutz, 2015 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_kc_human_2014]]). However, modest improvements of educational attainment levels result in declines in education-specific fertility rates, leading to incomplete economic convergence across different world regions. This is particularly an issue for Africa. Overall, the population development in SSP2 is designed to be situated in the middle of the road between SSP1 and SSP3, see KC and Lutz (2015) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_kc_human_2014]] for details. (Fricko et al., 2016 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_fricko_marker_2016]])

Economic activity - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-27T21:04:44Z

Volker Krey: separated economic development from combined population and GDP page

In addition to population economic development has a strong impact on the challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Generally, a poorer, less educated population will have more difficulties to adapt to the detrimental effects of climate change (O’Neill et al., 2014 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_oneill_new_2014]]). The primary drivers of future energy demand in MESSAGE are projections of total population and GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, denoted as GDP (PPP). In the MESSAGE-Access version of the model households are represented by income level (and rural/urban split) in developing country regions.

MESSAGE-GLOBIOM utilizes GDP (PPP) projections based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that are available at the country level [https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome SSP database]. In the SSPs, GDP development follows regional historical trends (Dellink et al., 2015 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_dellink_long-term_2015]]). In SSP2 specifically, average income grows by a factor of six and reaches about 60,000 USD/capita by the end of the century (all GDP/capita figures use USD2005 and purchasing-power-parity – PPP). The SSP2 GDP projection is situated in-between the estimates for SSP1 and SSP3, which reach global average income levels of 82,000 USD2005 and 22,000 USD2005, respectively, by the end of the century. SSP2 depicts a future of global progress where developing countries achieve significant economic growth. Today, average per capita income in the global North is about five times higher than in the global South. In SSP2, developing countries reach today’s average income levels of the OECD between 2060 and 2090, depending on the region. Overall, the GDP developments in SSP2 are designed to be situated in the middle of the road between SSP1 and SSP3, see Dellink et al (2015) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_dellink_long-term_2015]] for details. (Fricko et al., 2016 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_fricko_marker_2016]])

MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:52:48Z

Volker Krey:

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|Nr=11+1
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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:49:58Z

Volker Krey:

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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:48:54Z

Volker Krey:

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|Concept=Hybrid model (energy engineering and land use partial equilibrium models soft-linked to macro-economic general equilibrium model)
|SolutionMethod=Hybrid model (linear program optimization for the energy systems and land-use modules, non-linear program optimization for the macro-economic module)
|Anticipation=Myopic/Perfect Foresight (MESSAGE can be run both with perfect foresight and myopically, while GLOBIOM runs myopically)
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|Nr=11+1
|Region=AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa); CPA (Centrally Planned Asia & China); EEU (Eastern Europe); FSU (Former Soviet Union); LAM (Latin America and the Carribean); MEA (Middle East and North Africa); NAM (North America); PAO (Pacific OECD); PAS (Other Pacific Asia); SAS (South Asia); WEU (Western Europe); GLB (international shipping);
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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:47:42Z

Volker Krey:

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|Concept=Hybrid model (energy engineering and land use partial equilibrium models soft-linked to macro-economic general equilibrium model)
|SolutionMethod=Hybrid model (linear program optimization for the energy systems and land-use modules, non-linear program optimization for the macro-economic module)
|Anticipation=Myopic/Perfect Foresight (MESSAGE can be run both with perfect foresight and myopically, while GLOBIOM runs myopically)
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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:37:18Z

Volker Krey:

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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:36:11Z

Volker Krey:

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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:28:02Z

Volker Krey:

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|ElectricityTechnologyText=CCS can be combined with coal, gas and biomass power generation technologies
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|GridInfrastructureOption=Electricity; Gas; Heat; CO2; H2
|TechnologySubstitutionOption=Discrete technology choices; Expansion and decline constraints; System integration constraints
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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:23:14Z

Volker Krey:

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|country=Austria
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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2016-10-17T10:20:54Z

Volker Krey:

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