Economic activity - TIAM-UCL - Revision history

Matthew Winning at 19:18, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T19:18:48Z

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 === Sectoral drivers ===
-Industrial production is subdivided into chemical industry, iron &amp; steel and non-ferrous metals, pulp &amp; paper and non-metallic minerals, and other industries. Initial numbers are based on number from ETSAP-TIAM published by KANORS (2010).
+The industrial, services and agricultural sectors have different growth drivers from all other sectors i.e. they are not directly related to growth in GDP and a decoupling factor. There are a number of reasons for this, but key is that there is expected to be a decoupling of growth in, for example, production of steel and growth in GDP that is cannot be trivially estimated by a single decoupling factor. Additionally, the industrial service demands can be interpreted as represent the production of physical quantities e.g. tonnes of steel, tonnes of aluminium etc. Projections of future production are provided by various sources, who look in detail at the array of factors that affect production and consumption levels on regional basis. These sources therefore likely provide more robust estimates of future production while also providing a more tangible projection of what is being estimated.
-The development of sectoral growth rates are geared to the GDP numbers and imply a shift in GDP composition towards the service sector, so that agriculture and industry will become less important for the whole economy over the 21<sup>st</sup> century. To this end, the GDP composition of the most important regions has been extracted from national statistics according to the sectoral aggregation in TIAM.
+The projections of steel, aluminium and cement, paper and chemicals production globally used in TIAM-UCL are provided in the Figures below. These figures also shows how these compare with the projections used in ETSAP-TIAM.
-Sectoral drivers have been calibrated in such a way that they yield a more service-orientated economy.
+TIAM-UCL requires the energy-service demand and the energy intensity of protein and crop calories are very different. However, because both crop and protein demand follow a similar relationship to GDP/capita, the GDP/capita assumption shown in the crop Figure can be used to estimate how total consumption within each region will change in the future demand. This therefore assumes a constant ratio of crop to meat calories in all regions in the future, although clearly because GDP/capita increases, the absolute level of each also increases over time.
-In addition, the driver for the iron &amp; steel industry is geared to historical data on steel production obtained from statistics of the World Steel Association.
+<figure id="fig:steel">

Matthew Winning at 18:51, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T18:51:08Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:51, 15 December 2016
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	}}		}}
	=== GDP ===		=== GDP ===
			Estimations of future economic growth are much more uncertain than future population growth. Few studies exist that forecast GDP up to 2100 and so unlike population assumptions, GDP figures in TIAM-UCL are not based on a single source. Economic growth rates have been compared to assumptions made for scenarios in the 4th assessment report of the IPCC (Tsuneyuki 1999) and Clarke et al. (2007).
			Global GDP is assumed to grow from $50 trillion in 2010 to $155 trillion in 2050 and $350 trillion in 2100 (all GDP are in 2005 US$). Current figures for 2010 have been taken from the IMF (2009).

	~~Estimations of future economic growth are much more uncertain than future population growth. In TIAM-UCL~~ future ~~regional~~ economic growth are based on an assumption of economic convergence between regions.		Figures for future economic growth are based on an approximate assumption of economic convergence between regions (see Figure 3 5), i.e. that low income regions grow faster compared to high income regions. The figure shows this convergence of per capita income among world regions. The GDP per person is calculated as the ratio of GDP and population.
			The economic convergence is a central point in the assumptions on socio-economic drivers. The effect becomes clear when one compares the GDP per head in different regions. In 2005 India is the poorest region with a GDP per head of 10% of the world average and the USA is the richest region with 600% of the world average. In 2100 this picture changes with India having a GDP per head that has now grown to 55% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 350% of the world average.

	~~In detail~~, ~~this means that per capita income is~~ assumed to ~~converge between different regions, i~~.e. that low income ~~regions grow faster compared to high income regions~~. ~~GDP~~ is ~~calculated~~ in ~~2005 USD and~~ in ~~PPP terms.~~		GDP growth rates are expected to decline over the course of the 21st century, while they remain higher for developing countries than for developed countries. Owing to the shrinking population, the growth rates for South Korea and Japan are very low and turn negative at the end of the 21st century. Growth rates for Western Europe, the UK and the United States are assumed to drop from an average of 2.2% to 1.3% p.a. in 2050. The only region that is expected to increase GDP growth rates over the first decades is Africa based on a growing population and its current low income levels.
			Global economic growth is approximately in the mid-range of the growth in the SSP scenarios

	The figure, which has a logarithmic scale, shows this convergence of per capita income among world regions. The GDP per capita is calculated as the ratio of GDP and population.<br /> The economic convergence is a central point in the assumptions on socio-economic drivers. The effect becomes clear when one compares the GDP per capita in different regions.

	~~India is the poorest region with a GDP per head of 10% of the world average and the USA is the richest region with 608% of the world average in 2005.~~

	~~In 2100 this changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.~~

	<figure id="fig:GDP per capita">		<figure id="fig:GDP per capita">
	[[File:~~GDP per capita~~.png\|400px\|<caption>GDP per capita</caption>]]		[[File:Pop vs SSPs.png\|400px\|<caption>GDP per capita</caption>]]
	</figure>		</figure>

Matthew Winning at 18:45, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T18:45:00Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:45, 15 December 2016
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	=== Sectoral drivers ===		=== Sectoral drivers ===

	~~There exist no reliable data for the forecast of industrial production, agricultural or service output for the next 90 years.~~

	Industrial production is subdivided into chemical industry, iron & steel and non-ferrous metals, pulp & paper and non-metallic minerals, and other industries. Initial numbers are based on number from ETSAP-TIAM published by KANORS (2010).		Industrial production is subdivided into chemical industry, iron & steel and non-ferrous metals, pulp & paper and non-metallic minerals, and other industries. Initial numbers are based on number from ETSAP-TIAM published by KANORS (2010).

Matthew Winning at 18:43, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T18:43:58Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:43, 15 December 2016
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	=== GDP ===		=== GDP ===

	Estimations of future economic growth are much more uncertain than future population growth. ~~Figures for~~ future economic growth are based on an assumption of economic convergence between regions.		Estimations of future economic growth are much more uncertain than future population growth. In TIAM-UCL future regional economic growth are based on an assumption of economic convergence between regions.

	In detail, this means that per capita income is assumed to converge between different regions, i.e. that low income regions grow faster compared to high income regions. GDP is calculated in 2005 USD and in PPP terms.		In detail, this means that per capita income is assumed to converge between different regions, i.e. that low income regions grow faster compared to high income regions. GDP is calculated in 2005 USD and in PPP terms.

	The figure, which has a logarithmic scale, shows this convergence of per capita income among world regions. The GDP per ~~person~~ is calculated as the ratio of GDP and population.<br /> The economic convergence is a central point in the assumptions on socio-economic drivers. The effect becomes clear when one compares the GDP per ~~head~~ in different regions.		The figure, which has a logarithmic scale, shows this convergence of per capita income among world regions. The GDP per capita is calculated as the ratio of GDP and population.<br /> The economic convergence is a central point in the assumptions on socio-economic drivers. The effect becomes clear when one compares the GDP per capita in different regions.

	India is the poorest region with a GDP per head of 10% of the world average and the USA is the richest region with 608% of the world average in 2005.		India is the poorest region with a GDP per head of 10% of the world average and the USA is the richest region with 608% of the world average in 2005.

	In 2100 this ~~picture~~ changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.		In 2100 this changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.

	<figure id="fig:GDP per capita">		<figure id="fig:GDP per capita">
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	The development of sectoral growth rates are geared to the GDP numbers and imply a shift in GDP composition towards the service sector, so that agriculture and industry will become less important for the whole economy over the 21<sup>st</sup> century. To this end, the GDP composition of the most important regions has been extracted from national statistics according to the sectoral aggregation in TIAM.		The development of sectoral growth rates are geared to the GDP numbers and imply a shift in GDP composition towards the service sector, so that agriculture and industry will become less important for the whole economy over the 21<sup>st</sup> century. To this end, the GDP composition of the most important regions has been extracted from national statistics according to the sectoral aggregation in TIAM.

	~~In a next step, the sectoral~~ drivers have been calibrated in such a way that they yield a more service orientated economy.		Sectoral drivers have been calibrated in such a way that they yield a more service-orientated economy.

	In addition, the driver for the iron & steel industry is geared to historical data on steel production obtained from statistics of the World Steel Association.		In addition, the driver for the iron & steel industry is geared to historical data on steel production obtained from statistics of the World Steel Association.

Matthew Winning at 18:41, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T18:41:22Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:41, 15 December 2016
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	<figure id="fig:GDP per capita">		<figure id="fig:GDP per capita">
	[[File:~~Pop vs SSPs~~.png\|400px\|<caption>GDP per capita</caption>]]		[[File:GDP per capita.png\|400px\|<caption>GDP per capita</caption>]]
	</figure>		</figure>

Matthew Winning at 18:40, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T18:40:19Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:40, 15 December 2016
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	In 2100 this picture changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.		In 2100 this picture changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.

			<figure id="fig:GDP per capita">
			[[File:Pop vs SSPs.png\|400px\|<caption>GDP per capita</caption>]]
			</figure>

Matthew Winning at 18:01, 28 November 2016

2016-11-28T18:01:25Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:01, 28 November 2016
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	Estimations of future economic growth are much more uncertain than future population growth. Figures for future economic growth are based on an assumption of economic convergence between regions.		Estimations of future economic growth are much more uncertain than future population growth. Figures for future economic growth are based on an assumption of economic convergence between regions.

	In detail, this means that per capita income is assumed to converge between different regions, i.e. that low income regions grow faster compared to high income regions.		In detail, this means that per capita income is assumed to converge between different regions, i.e. that low income regions grow faster compared to high income regions. GDP is calculated in 2005 USD and in PPP terms.

	The figure, which has a logarithmic scale, shows this convergence of per capita income among world regions. The GDP per person is calculated as the ratio of GDP and population.<br /> The economic convergence is a central point in the assumptions on socio-economic drivers. The effect becomes clear when one compares the GDP per head in different regions.		The figure, which has a logarithmic scale, shows this convergence of per capita income among world regions. The GDP per person is calculated as the ratio of GDP and population.<br /> The economic convergence is a central point in the assumptions on socio-economic drivers. The effect becomes clear when one compares the GDP per head in different regions.

Matthew Winning at 11:30, 10 October 2016

2016-10-10T11:30:58Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:30, 10 October 2016
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	In 2100 this picture changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.		In 2100 this picture changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.


			=== Sectoral drivers ===

			There exist no reliable data for the forecast of industrial production, agricultural or service output for the next 90 years.

			Industrial production is subdivided into chemical industry, iron & steel and non-ferrous metals, pulp & paper and non-metallic minerals, and other industries. Initial numbers are based on number from ETSAP-TIAM published by KANORS (2010).

			The development of sectoral growth rates are geared to the GDP numbers and imply a shift in GDP composition towards the service sector, so that agriculture and industry will become less important for the whole economy over the 21<sup>st</sup> century. To this end, the GDP composition of the most important regions has been extracted from national statistics according to the sectoral aggregation in TIAM.

			In a next step, the sectoral drivers have been calibrated in such a way that they yield a more service orientated economy.

			In addition, the driver for the iron & steel industry is geared to historical data on steel production obtained from statistics of the World Steel Association.

Matthew Winning at 11:27, 10 October 2016

2016-10-10T11:27:31Z

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 {{ModelDocumentationTemplate
 |IsDocumentationOf=TIAM-UCL
 |DocumentationCategory=Economic activity
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Rineke Oostenrijk: 1 revision imported

2016-08-17T10:04:34Z

1 revision imported

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Revision as of 12:04, 17 August 2016