Energy demand - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - Revision history

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	Baseline energy service demands are provided exogenously to MESSAGE, though they can be adjusted endogenously based on energy prices using the MESSAGE-MACRO link. There are seven energy		Baseline energy service demands are provided exogenously to MESSAGE, though they can be adjusted endogenously based on energy prices using the MESSAGE-MACRO link. There are seven energy

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	Baseline energy service demands are provided exogenously to MESSAGE, though they can be adjusted endogenously based on energy prices using the MESSAGE-MACRO link. There are seven energy		Baseline energy service demands are provided exogenously to MESSAGE, though they can be adjusted endogenously based on energy prices using the MESSAGE-MACRO link. There are seven energy

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Johanna Zilliacus at 15:07, 24 August 2016

2016-08-24T15:07:05Z

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	service demands that are provided to MESSAGE, including:		service demands that are provided to MESSAGE, including:

	1. Residential/commercial thermal		# Residential/commercial thermal
	2. Residential/commercial specific		# Residential/commercial specific
	3. Industrial thermal		# Industrial thermal
	4. Industrial specific		# Industrial specific
	5. Industrial feedstock (non-energy)		# Industrial feedstock (non-energy)
	6. Transportation		# Transportation
	7. Non-commercial biomass.		# Non-commercial biomass.

	These demands are generated using a so-called scenario generator which is implemented in the script language [[https://www.r-project.org/\|R]]. The scenario generator uses country-level		These demands are generated using a so-called scenario generator which is implemented in the script language [[https://www.r-project.org/\|R]]. The scenario generator uses country-level
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	sources for the historical and projected datasets are the following:		sources for the historical and projected datasets are the following:

	1. Historical GDP (PPP) – World Bank (World Development Indicators 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_world_bank_group_world_2012]])		# Historical GDP (PPP) – World Bank (World Development Indicators 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_world_bank_group_world_2012]])
	2. Historical Population – UN Population Division (World Population Projection 2010 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_un_population_division_world_2010]])		# Historical Population – UN Population Division (World Population Projection 2010 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_un_population_division_world_2010]])
	3. Historical Final Energy – International Energy Agency Energy Balances (IEA 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_international_energy_agency_energy_2012]])		# Historical Final Energy – International Energy Agency Energy Balances (IEA 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_international_energy_agency_energy_2012]])
	4. Projected GDP (PPP) – Dellink et al (2015 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_dellink_long-term_2015]]), see Shared Socio-Economic Pathways database ([[https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/\|SSP scenarios]])		# Projected GDP (PPP) – Dellink et al (2015 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_dellink_long-term_2015]]), see Shared Socio-Economic Pathways database ([https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/\|SSP scenarios])
	5. Projected Population – KC and Lutz (2014 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_kc_human_2014]]), see Shared Socio-Economic Pathways database([[https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/\|SSP scenarios]])		# Projected Population – KC and Lutz (2014 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_kc_human_2014]]), see Shared Socio-Economic Pathways database([https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/\|SSP scenarios])

	The scenario generator runs regressions on the historical datasets to establish the relationship between the independent variable (GDP (PPP) per capita) and several dependent variables, including total final energy intensity (MJ/2005USD) and the shares of final energy in several energy sectors (%). In the case of final energy intensity, the		The scenario generator runs regressions on the historical datasets to establish the relationship between the independent variable (GDP (PPP) per capita) and several dependent variables, including total final energy intensity (MJ/2005USD) and the shares of final energy in several energy sectors (%). In the case of final energy intensity, the
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	exception is the industrial share of final energy, which uses a hump-shaped function inspired by Schäfer (2005) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_schafer_structural_2005]]. This portion of the model provides the historical relationships between GDP per capita and the dependent variables for each of the eleven MESSAGE regions.		exception is the industrial share of final energy, which uses a hump-shaped function inspired by Schäfer (2005) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_schafer_structural_2005]]. This portion of the model provides the historical relationships between GDP per capita and the dependent variables for each of the eleven MESSAGE regions.

	The historical data are also used in [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantile_regression\|quantile regressions]] to develop global trend lines that represent each percentile of the		The historical data are also used in [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantile_regression\|quantile regressions] to develop global trend lines that represent each percentile of the
	cumulative distribution function (CDF) of each regressed variable. Given the regional regressions and global trend lines, final energy intensity and sectoral shares can be extrapolated		cumulative distribution function (CDF) of each regressed variable. Given the regional regressions and global trend lines, final energy intensity and sectoral shares can be extrapolated
	based on projected GDP per capita, or average income. Several user-defined inputs allow the user to tailor the extrapolations to individual socio-economic scenarios. In the case of final		based on projected GDP per capita, or average income. Several user-defined inputs allow the user to tailor the extrapolations to individual socio-economic scenarios. In the case of final

Johanna Zilliacus at 15:03, 24 August 2016

2016-08-24T15:03:43Z

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Rineke Oostenrijk: Edited automatically from page MESSAGE-GLOBIOM setup.

2016-08-05T19:02:12Z

Edited automatically from page MESSAGE-GLOBIOM setup.

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Rineke Oostenrijk: Edited automatically from page MESSAGE-GLOBIOM setup.

2016-08-05T19:02:10Z

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