Fossil energy resources - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - Revision history

Anique Carbados: Minor English edit to refer to other data sources in line with MESSAGEix 2020 update.

2020-12-18T14:38:07Z

Minor English edit to refer to other data sources in line with MESSAGEix 2020 update.

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:38, 18 December 2020
Line 10:		Line 10:
	What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions about fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those of related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potential of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by the tendency toward regional fragmentation, the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels in the longer-term based on coal-to-liquids technology. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).		What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions about fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those of related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potential of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by the tendency toward regional fragmentation, the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels in the longer-term based on coal-to-liquids technology. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).

	<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) ~~as of~~ the ~~year 2009~~. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.		<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) and the databases mentioned earlier. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.

	‘Reserves’ are generally defined as being those quantities for which geological and engineering information indicate with reasonable certainty that they can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. ‘Resources’ are detected quantities that cannot be profitably recovered with current technology, but might be recoverable in the future, as well as those quantities that are geologically possible, but yet to be found. The remainder are ‘Undiscovered resources’ and, by definition, one can only speculate on their existence. Definitions are based on Rogner et al. (2012) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]].		‘Reserves’ are generally defined as being those quantities for which geological and engineering information indicate with reasonable certainty that they can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. ‘Resources’ are detected quantities that cannot be profitably recovered with current technology, but might be recoverable in the future, as well as those quantities that are geologically possible, but yet to be found. The remainder are ‘Undiscovered resources’ and, by definition, one can only speculate on their existence. Definitions are based on Rogner et al. (2012) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]].

Anique Carbados: Minor English edits

2020-12-18T14:36:53Z

Minor English edits

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:36, 18 December 2020
Line 8:		Line 8:
	The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.		The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.

	What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions about fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those of related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potential of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which ~~in the longer term~~ leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids ~~technologies~~. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).		What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions about fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those of related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potential of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by the tendency toward regional fragmentation, the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels in the longer-term based on coal-to-liquids technology. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).

	<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.		<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.

Anique Carbados: English edit

2020-12-18T14:29:52Z

English edit

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:29, 18 December 2020
Line 8:		Line 8:
	The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.		The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.

	What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions about fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those of related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic ~~potentials~~ of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).		What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions about fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those of related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potential of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).

	<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.		<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.

Anique Carbados: Minor English edits

2020-12-18T14:29:03Z

Minor English edits

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:29, 18 December 2020
Line 8:		Line 8:
	The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.		The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.

	What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).		What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions about fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those of related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).

	<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.		<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.

Anique Carbados: U to u in Survey

2020-12-18T14:27:55Z

U to u in Survey

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:27, 18 December 2020
Line 6:		Line 6:
	==Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources==		==Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources==

	The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological ~~SUrvey~~ (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.		The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.

	What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).		What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).

Anique Carbados at 12:53, 18 December 2020

2020-12-18T12:53:13Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:53, 18 December 2020
Line 6:		Line 6:
	==Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources==		==Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources==

	The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in		The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological SUrvey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.

	fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological SUrvey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.

	What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).		What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).

Anique Carbados: /* Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources */

2020-12-18T12:52:54Z

Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:52, 18 December 2020
Line 7:		Line 7:

	The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in		The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in
	fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological SUrvey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas. What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).
			fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological SUrvey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas.

			What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).

	<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.		<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.

Anique Carbados: /* Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources */

2020-12-18T12:46:10Z

Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources

Johanna Zilliacus at 10:10, 31 August 2016

2016-08-31T10:10:34Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:10, 31 August 2016
Line 93:		Line 93:
	</div>		</div>

	Conventional oil and gas are distributed unevenly throughout the world, with only a few regions dominating the reserves. Nearly half of the reserves of conventional oil is found in		Conventional oil and gas are distributed unevenly throughout the world, with only a few regions dominating the reserves. Nearly half of the reserves of conventional oil is found in Middle East and North Africa, and close to 40% of conventional gas is found in Russia and the former Soviet Union states. The situation is somewhat different for unconventional oil of which North and Latin America potentially possess significantly higher global shares. Unconventional gas in turn is distributed quite well throughout the world, with North America holding most (roughly 25% of global resources). The distribution of coal reserves shows the highest geographical diversity which in the more fragmented SSP3 world contributes to increased overall reliance on this resource. Russia and the former Soviet Union states, Pacific OECD, North America, and Centrally Planned Asia and China all possess more than 10 ZJ of reserves.
	Middle East and North Africa, and close to 40% of conventional gas is found in Russia and the former Soviet Union states. The situation is somewhat different for unconventional oil
	of which North and Latin America potentially possess significantly higher global shares. Unconventional gas in turn is distributed quite well throughout the world, with North America
	holding most (roughly 25% of global resources). The distribution of coal reserves shows the highest geographical diversity which in the more fragmented SSP3 world contributes to
	increased overall reliance on this resource. Russia and the former Soviet Union states, Pacific OECD, North America, and Centrally Planned Asia and China all possess more than 10 ZJ
	of reserves.

Johanna Zilliacus at 14:19, 30 August 2016

2016-08-30T14:19:17Z

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 {{ModelDocumentationTemplate
 |IsDocumentationOf=MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
 |DocumentationCategory=Fossil energy resources
 }}

← Older revision		Revision as of 14:46, 18 December 2020
Line 7:		Line 7:

	The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in		The availability and costs of fossil fuels influences the future direction of the energy system, and therewith future mitigation challenges. Understanding the variations in
	fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence ~~useful~~. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources		fossil fuel availability and the underlying extraction cost assumptions across the SSPs is hence important. Our fossil energy resource assumptions are derived from various sources, including global databases such as The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) and the U.S. Geological SUrvey (USGS), as well as market reports and outlooks provided by different energy institutes and agencies. The availability of fossil energy resources in different regions under different socio-economic assumptions are then aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs (Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]). While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas. What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons ( <xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr>, middle panel).
	(Rogner, 1997 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_assessment_1997]]; Riahi et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_riahi_chapter_2012]]) ~~and are aligned with the storylines of the individual SSPs~~. While the physical resource base is identical across the SSPs, considerable differences are assumed regarding the technical and economic availability of overall resources, for example, of unconventional oil and gas. What ultimately determines the attractiveness of a particular type of resource is not just the cost at which it can be brought to the surface, but the cost at which it can be used to provide energy services. Assumptions on fossil energy resources should thus be considered together with those on related conversion technologies. In line with the narratives, technological change in fossil fuel extraction and conversion technologies is assumed to be slowest in SSP1, while comparatively faster technological change occurs in SSP3 thereby considerably enlarging the economic potentials of coal and unconventional hydrocarbons (<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"/>, <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"/>). However, driven by tendency toward regional fragmentation the focus in SSP3 is assumed to be on developing coal technologies which in the longer term leads to a replacement of oil products by synthetic fuels based on coal-to-liquids technologies. In contrast, for SSP2 we assume a continuation of recent trends, focusing more on developing extraction technologies for unconventional hydrocarbon resources, thereby leading to higher potential cumulative oil extraction than in the other SSPs (<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"/>, middle panel).

	<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"/> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"/> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.		<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_globff"></xr> shows the assumed total quantities of fossil fuel resources in the MESSAGE model for the base year 2005. <xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> gives these resource estimates as supply curves. In addition, the assumptions are compared with estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]]) as of the year 2009. Estimating fossil fuel reserves is built on both economic and technological assumptions. With an improvement in technology or a change in purchasing power, the amount that may be considered a “reserve” vs. a “resource” (generically referred to here as resources) can actually vary quite widely.

	‘Reserves’ are generally defined as being those quantities for which geological and engineering information indicate with reasonable certainty that they can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. ‘Resources’ are detected quantities that cannot be profitably recovered with current technology, but might be recoverable in the future, as well as those quantities that are geologically possible, but yet to be found. The remainder are ‘Undiscovered resources’ and, by definition, one can only speculate on their existence. Definitions are based on Rogner et al. (2012) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]].		‘Reserves’ are generally defined as being those quantities for which geological and engineering information indicate with reasonable certainty that they can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. ‘Resources’ are detected quantities that cannot be profitably recovered with current technology, but might be recoverable in the future, as well as those quantities that are geologically possible, but yet to be found. The remainder are ‘Undiscovered resources’ and, by definition, one can only speculate on their existence. Definitions are based on Rogner et al. (2012) [[CiteRef::MSG-GLB_rogner_chapter_2012]].
Line 53:		Line 52:
	</figtable>		</figtable>

	The following table (<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_ffavail"/>) presents the fossil resource availability in ZJ (2010-2100) for coal, oil and gas, for SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3, respectively.		The following table (<xr id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_ffavail"></xr>) presents the fossil resource availability in ZJ (2010-2100) for coal, oil and gas, for SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3, respectively.

	<figtable id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_ffavail">		<figtable id="tab:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_ffavail">
Line 84:		Line 83:
	Natural gas is more abundant in both the conventional and unconventional categories.		Natural gas is more abundant in both the conventional and unconventional categories.

	<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"/> presents the cumulative global resource supply curves for coal, oil and gas in the IIASA IAM framework. Green shaded resources are technically and economically extractable in all SSPs, purple shaded resources are additionally available in SSP1 and SSP2 and blue shaded resources are additionally available in SSP2. Coloured vertical lines		<xr id="fig:MESSAGE-GLOBIOM_supply"></xr> presents the cumulative global resource supply curves for coal, oil and gas in the IIASA IAM framework. Green shaded resources are technically and economically extractable in all SSPs, purple shaded resources are additionally available in SSP1 and SSP2 and blue shaded resources are additionally available in SSP2. Coloured vertical lines
	represent the cumulative use of each resource between 2010 and 2100 in the SSP baselines (see top panel for colour coding), and are thus the result of the combined effect of the assumptions on fossil resource availability and conversion technologies in the SSP baselines.		represent the cumulative use of each resource between 2010 and 2100 in the SSP baselines (see top panel for colour coding), and are thus the result of the combined effect of the assumptions on fossil resource availability and conversion technologies in the SSP baselines.