https://www.iamcdocumentation.eu/history/Population_-_IFs?feed=atom 2026-07-02T01:19:18Z Revision history for this page on the wiki MediaWiki 1.39.15 https://www.iamcdocumentation.eu/index.php?title=Population_-_IFs&diff=16463&oldid=prev 2024-12-28T22:08:20Z

<p>Population</p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:08, 29 December 2024</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l4">Line 4:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 4:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>|DocumentationCategory=Population</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>|DocumentationCategory=Population</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>}}</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>}}</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The dominant population equation is a simple addition of births (BIRTHS) at the bottom of the cohort distribution, subtraction of deaths (DEATHS) from each population cohort, and advance of people to the next cohort over time. Although the output from IFs <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">shows </del>population <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">in the </del>standard 5-year age categories, the model maintains single-year categories internally to be consistent with its one-year time steps, thereby avoiding numerical diffusion of <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">changes to </del>the bottom <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">of </del>5-year <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">categories to higher age categories</del>.</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>The dominant population equation is a simple addition of births (BIRTHS) at the bottom of the <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">single-year </ins>cohort distribution, subtraction of deaths (DEATHS) from each population cohort, and advance of people to the next cohort over time. Although the output from <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">the </ins>IFs <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">interface displays </ins>population <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">aggregated into </ins>standard 5-year age categories, the model maintains <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">and uses </ins>single-year categories internally to be consistent with its one-year time steps, thereby avoiding numerical diffusion of <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">aging via premature movement of people aging into any 5-year category (in </ins>the bottom <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">cohort year) on up the next higher </ins>5-year <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">category in the following year</ins>.</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Births are most immediately a function of the total fertility rate (TFR)<del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, which </del>in <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">the longer term </del>responds especially to <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">education level </del>of the adult population, infant mortality rates, and contraception usage rates. The model user has direct control over TFR with a multiplier and <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">for </del>low fertility countries with a parameter specifying long-term stabilization level for <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">fertility</del>.  </div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Births are most immediately a function of the total fertility rate (TFR) <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">and numbers of women </ins>in <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">their child-bearing years. Over time TFR </ins>responds especially to <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">educational attainment </ins>of the adult population, infant mortality rates, and contraception usage rates <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">(some attention to differential fertility between urban and rural populations, which are represented in IFs and affect fertility rates around the world, would be a useful addition)</ins>. The model user has direct control over TFR with a multiplier and<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, to avoid movement to unreasonably low rates in </ins>low fertility countries<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, </ins>with a parameter specifying long-term stabilization level for <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">TFR. As is common in IFs, the TFR function, including control by a minimum TFR value and the possibility of increase to that minimum from below for countries (like Italy and South Korea) that may have base year values below a value specified by users, is not simply an equation, but an equation wrapped in algorithmic logic that attempts to prevent unrealistic behavior in the long run. Long-term modeling requires not only equations, but structural logic elaborated in algorithms</ins>.</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br/></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="−"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Deaths are primarily a function of age-sex specific mortality rates computed within the IFs health model where they <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">respond in the long run to </del>adult education <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">and also to </del>GDP per capita and technology change, as well as mortality cause specific proximate drivers (e.g. indoor <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">(</del>solid fuel <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">related) or </del>urban air pollution). The model user has direct control over all deaths with a mortality multiplier <del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">and over those specific to a cause of health </del>with an alternative mortality multiplier</div></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Deaths are primarily a function of age-sex specific mortality rates computed within the IFs health model where they <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">change over time with </ins>adult education<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, </ins>GDP per capita and technology change, as well as <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">with selected </ins>mortality<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-</ins>cause<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-</ins>specific proximate drivers (e.g. indoor solid fuel<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">-use and </ins>urban air pollution). The model user has direct control over all deaths with a <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">general </ins>mortality multiplier <ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">or </ins>with an alternative<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">, cause-specific </ins>mortality multiplier<ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">. The population model also computes morbidity. The principal data source for mortality and morbidity by cause, age, and sex is the Global Burden of Disease project.</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The model further represents inward and outward migration rates and numbers, as well as foreign-born population totals.  Although the principal data source for initialization of all demographic data series are the newest releases by the United Nations Population Division, data on bilateral (or dyadic) migration flows also come from Guy Abel (2019).  Given migration-based population stocks abroad, the model also computes remittances, which in the economic model adjust household income in sending and receiving countries, as well as affecting current account balances.</ins></div></td></tr> <!-- diff cache key iamcdb:diff::1.12:old-8967:rev-16463 --> </table>

Barry Hughes https://www.iamcdocumentation.eu/index.php?title=Population_-_IFs&diff=8967&oldid=prev 2018-08-09T18:14:53Z

<p></p> <table style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122;" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #202122; text-align: center;">Revision as of 20:14, 9 August 2018</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l1">Line 1:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 1:</td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>{{ModelDocumentationTemplate</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>{{ModelDocumentationTemplate</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">|IsEmpty=No</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>|IsDocumentationOf=IFs</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>|IsDocumentationOf=IFs</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>|DocumentationCategory=Population</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>|DocumentationCategory=Population</div></td></tr> <tr><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>}}</div></td><td class="diff-marker"></td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>}}</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The dominant population equation is a simple addition of births (BIRTHS) at the bottom of the cohort distribution, subtraction of deaths (DEATHS) from each population cohort, and advance of people to the next cohort over time. Although the output from IFs shows population in the standard 5-year age categories, the model maintains single-year categories internally to be consistent with its one-year time steps, thereby avoiding numerical diffusion of changes to the bottom of 5-year categories to higher age categories.</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Births are most immediately a function of the total fertility rate (TFR), which in the longer term responds especially to education level of the adult population, infant mortality rates, and contraception usage rates. The model user has direct control over TFR with a multiplier and for low fertility countries with a parameter specifying long-term stabilization level for fertility. </ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-side-deleted"></td><td class="diff-marker" data-marker="+"></td><td style="color: #202122; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Deaths are primarily a function of age-sex specific mortality rates computed within the IFs health model where they respond in the long run to adult education and also to GDP per capita and technology change, as well as mortality cause specific proximate drivers (e.g. indoor (solid fuel related) or urban air pollution). The model user has direct control over all deaths with a mortality multiplier and over those specific to a cause of health with an alternative mortality multiplier</ins></div></td></tr> </table>

Steve Hedden https://www.iamcdocumentation.eu/index.php?title=Population_-_IFs&diff=7380&oldid=prev 2018-02-28T09:11:26Z

<p>Edited automatically from page <a href="/IFs_setup" title="IFs setup">IFs setup</a>.</p> <p><b>New page</b></p><div>{{ModelDocumentationTemplate<br /> |IsDocumentationOf=IFs<br /> |DocumentationCategory=Population<br /> }}</div>

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