Population - TIAM-UCL - Revision history

Matthew Winning at 19:00, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T19:00:11Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:00, 15 December 2016
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	=== Households ===		=== Households ===

	~~The growth rate of household numbers during 2005-2100 for different regions are represented in the model.~~ The number of households is based on population estimates and occupancy rate. There exists no database for the occupancy rate for each region in the TIAM-UCL model.		The number of households is based on population estimates and occupancy rate. There exists no database for the occupancy rate for each region in the TIAM-UCL model. Therefore, the numbers in this section rely on national statistics. There are forecasts for the average household occupancy for some countries for the near future (up to 2030) from which it is possible estimate the number of households (given assumptions on population).
			For the longer term, it is assumed that the occupancy rate will increase in line with historic data to 1.7 to 3 persons per household, depending on the region. The reason for this range is the difference in current average persons per household, e.g. in 2005 the average Indian household consisted of 5.3 persons, while the average Western European household consisted of 2.1 persons per household.

	~~Therefore~~, the ~~numbers in this section rely on national statistics. For some countries, there exist forecasts for the near future (up to 2030) concerning the development of the average~~ number of ~~people~~ in ~~a household~~. ~~These have been used where available~~ in ~~order~~ to ~~determine the household growth for the near future~~.		Given these assumptions, the total number of households globally increases from 1.9 billion in 2005 to 3.4 billion in 2050 to 5.1 billion in 2100.

	~~For~~ the ~~longer term~~, ~~it is assumed~~ that ~~the occupancy rate will increase in line with historic data from 1~~.~~7 to 3 persons per household~~, ~~depending on the region. The reason~~ for ~~this range is the difference in current average persons per household~~, ~~e.g. in 2005 the average Indian household consisted of 5.3 persons~~, ~~while the average~~ Western ~~European household consisted of 2.1 persons per household~~.~~<br />~~		In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe.

	In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe. Numbers for the driver 'GDP per household' have been calculated as the ratio of GDP and number of households for each given region.		[[File:Households.png\|400px\|Households growth rate]]

Matthew Winning at 18:00, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T18:00:23Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:00, 15 December 2016
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	We are also able to run the various Shared Socio-economic (SSP) pathway scenarios [[CiteRef::nakicenovic2014a]] in TIAM-UCL. The standard TIAM-UCL population assumption is around halfway between SSP3 and SSP2 for population.		We are also able to run the various Shared Socio-economic (SSP) pathway scenarios [[CiteRef::nakicenovic2014a]] in TIAM-UCL. The standard TIAM-UCL population assumption is around halfway between SSP3 and SSP2 for population.
			<figure id="fig:Population SSPs">
			[[File:Pop vs SSPs.png\|400px\|<caption>TIAM-UCL population vs SSPs</caption>]]
			</figure>

	=== Households ===		=== Households ===

Matthew Winning at 17:53, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T17:53:14Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:53, 15 December 2016
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	Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.		Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.

	We are also able to run the various Shared Socio-economic (SSP) pathway scenarios in TIAM-UCL. The standard TIAM-UCL population assumption is around halfway between SSP3 and SSP2 for population.		We are also able to run the various Shared Socio-economic (SSP) pathway scenarios [[CiteRef::nakicenovic2014a]] in TIAM-UCL. The standard TIAM-UCL population assumption is around halfway between SSP3 and SSP2 for population.

	=== Households ===		=== Households ===

Matthew Winning at 16:35, 15 December 2016

2016-12-15T16:35:41Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:35, 15 December 2016
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	Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.		Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.

	We are also able to run Shared Socio-economic (SSP) pathway scenarios in TIAM-UCL		We are also able to run the various Shared Socio-economic (SSP) pathway scenarios in TIAM-UCL. The standard TIAM-UCL population assumption is around halfway between SSP3 and SSP2 for population.

	=== Households ===		=== Households ===

Matthew Winning at 19:47, 14 December 2016

2016-12-14T19:47:27Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:47, 14 December 2016
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	=== Population ===		=== Population ===

	Population figures up to 2050 are based on UN estimations (UN, 2009). ~~For the second half of the 21st century, population growth is assumed to follow the pattern of the first half, i.e. that population growth rates decline or become negative.<br />~~ It is assumed that world population will increase from 6.7 billion people in 2005 to 9.3 billion people in 2050, reach the peak in 2090 with 9.8 billion and then decline slightly.		Population figures up to 2050 are based on UN estimations (UN, 2009). It is assumed that world population will increase from 6.7 billion people in 2005 to 9.3 billion people in 2050, reach the peak in 2090 with 9.8 billion and then decline slightly.

	The biggest population increase over the 21st century is expected to happen in Africa, India, Other Developing Asia and the Middle East .		The biggest population increase over the 21st century is expected to happen in Africa, India, Other Developing Asia and the Middle East .
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	Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.		Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.

			We are also able to run Shared Socio-economic (SSP) pathway scenarios in TIAM-UCL

	=== Households ===		=== Households ===
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	Therefore, the numbers in this section rely on national statistics. For some countries, there exist forecasts for the near future (up to 2030) concerning the development of the average number of people in a household. These have been used where available in order to determine the household growth for the near future.		Therefore, the numbers in this section rely on national statistics. For some countries, there exist forecasts for the near future (up to 2030) concerning the development of the average number of people in a household. These have been used where available in order to determine the household growth for the near future.

	For the longer term, it is assumed that the occupancy rate will increase in line with historic data to 1.7 to 3 persons per household, depending on the region. The reason for this range is the difference in current average persons per household, e.g. in 2005 the average Indian household consisted of 5.3 persons, while the average Western European household consisted of 2.1 persons per household.<br />		For the longer term, it is assumed that the occupancy rate will increase in line with historic data from 1.7 to 3 persons per household, depending on the region. The reason for this range is the difference in current average persons per household, e.g. in 2005 the average Indian household consisted of 5.3 persons, while the average Western European household consisted of 2.1 persons per household.<br />

	In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe. Numbers for the driver 'GDP per household' have been calculated as the ratio of GDP and number of households for each given region.		In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe. Numbers for the driver 'GDP per household' have been calculated as the ratio of GDP and number of households for each given region.

Matthew Winning at 11:32, 10 October 2016

2016-10-10T11:32:51Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:32, 10 October 2016
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	=== Households ===		=== Households ===

	The growth rate of household numbers during 2005-2100 for different regions are represented in the model. The number of households is based on population estimates and occupancy rate. There exists no database for the occupancy rate for each region in the TIAM-UCL model. Therefore, the numbers in this section rely on national statistics. For some countries, there exist forecasts for the near future (up to 2030) concerning the development of the average number of people in a household. These have been used where available in order to determine the household growth for the near future. For the longer term, it is assumed that the occupancy rate will increase in line with historic data to 1.7 to 3 persons per household, depending on the region. The reason for this range is the difference in current average persons per household, e.g. in 2005 the average Indian household consisted of 5.3 persons, while the average Western European household consisted of 2.1 persons per household.<br />		The growth rate of household numbers during 2005-2100 for different regions are represented in the model. The number of households is based on population estimates and occupancy rate. There exists no database for the occupancy rate for each region in the TIAM-UCL model.

	In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe. Numbers for the driver ?GDP per household? have been calculated as the ratio of GDP and number of households for each given region.		Therefore, the numbers in this section rely on national statistics. For some countries, there exist forecasts for the near future (up to 2030) concerning the development of the average number of people in a household. These have been used where available in order to determine the household growth for the near future.

			For the longer term, it is assumed that the occupancy rate will increase in line with historic data to 1.7 to 3 persons per household, depending on the region. The reason for this range is the difference in current average persons per household, e.g. in 2005 the average Indian household consisted of 5.3 persons, while the average Western European household consisted of 2.1 persons per household.<br />

			In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe. Numbers for the driver 'GDP per household' have been calculated as the ratio of GDP and number of households for each given region.

Matthew Winning at 11:28, 10 October 2016

2016-10-10T11:28:48Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:28, 10 October 2016
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	In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe. Numbers for the driver ?GDP per household? have been calculated as the ratio of GDP and number of households for each given region.		In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe. Numbers for the driver ?GDP per household? have been calculated as the ratio of GDP and number of households for each given region.

	~~=== Sectoral drivers ===~~

	There exist no reliable data for the forecast of industrial production, agricultural or service output for the next 90 years. Industrial production is subdivided into chemical industry, iron & steel and non-ferrous metals, pulp & paper and non-metallic minerals, and other industries. Initial numbers are based on number from ETSAP-TIAM published by KANORS (2010). The development of sectoral growth rates are geared to the GDP numbers and imply a shift in GDP composition towards the service sector, so that agriculture and industry will become less important for the whole economy over the 21<sup>st</sup> century. To this end, the GDP composition of the most important regions has been extracted from national statistics according to the sectoral aggregation in TIAM. In a next step, the sectoral drivers have been calibrated in such a way that they yield a more service orientated economy. In addition, the driver for the iron & steel industry is geared to historical data on steel production obtained from statistics of the World Steel Association.

Matthew Winning at 11:26, 10 October 2016

2016-10-10T11:26:41Z

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 Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.
 === Households ===

Rineke Oostenrijk: 1 revision imported

2016-08-17T10:06:32Z

1 revision imported

← Older revision

Revision as of 12:06, 17 August 2016

Rineke Oostenrijk at 14:02, 16 August 2016

2016-08-16T14:02:26Z

New page

{{ModelDocumentationTemplate
|IsDocumentationOf=TIAM-UCL
|DocumentationCategory=Population
}}
=== Population ===

Population figures up to 2050 are based on UN estimations (UN, 2009). For the second half of the 21st century, population growth is assumed to follow the pattern of the first half, i.e. that population growth rates decline or become negative. It is assumed that world population will increase from 6.7 billion people in 2005 to 9.3 billion people in 2050, reach the peak in 2090 with 9.8 billion and then decline slightly.

The biggest population increase over the 21st century is expected to happen in Africa, India, Other Developing Asia and the Middle East .

Under the given assumptions China, Eastern Europe, Former Soviet Union, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Western Europe experience negative population growth rates in the second half of the 21st century.

Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.
=== GDP ===

Estimations of future economic growth are much more uncertain than future population growth. Figures for future economic growth are based on an assumption of economic convergence between regions.

In detail, this means that per capita income is assumed to converge between different regions, i.e. that low income regions grow faster compared to high income regions.

The figure, which has a logarithmic scale, shows this convergence of per capita income among world regions. The GDP per person is calculated as the ratio of GDP and population. The economic convergence is a central point in the assumptions on socio-economic drivers. The effect becomes clear when one compares the GDP per head in different regions.

India is the poorest region with a GDP per head of 10% of the world average and the USA is the richest region with 608% of the world average in 2005.

In 2100 this picture changes to India still being the poorest country with GDP per head but with 47% of the world average and the USA being the richest country with 303% of the world average.

=== Households ===

The growth rate of household numbers during 2005-2100 for different regions are represented in the model. The number of households is based on population estimates and occupancy rate. There exists no database for the occupancy rate for each region in the TIAM-UCL model. Therefore, the numbers in this section rely on national statistics. For some countries, there exist forecasts for the near future (up to 2030) concerning the development of the average number of people in a household. These have been used where available in order to determine the household growth for the near future. For the longer term, it is assumed that the occupancy rate will increase in line with historic data to 1.7 to 3 persons per household, depending on the region. The reason for this range is the difference in current average persons per household, e.g. in 2005 the average Indian household consisted of 5.3 persons, while the average Western European household consisted of 2.1 persons per household. 

In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe. Numbers for the driver ?GDP per household? have been calculated as the ratio of GDP and number of households for each given region.

=== Sectoral drivers ===

There exist no reliable data for the forecast of industrial production, agricultural or service output for the next 90 years. Industrial production is subdivided into chemical industry, iron & steel and non-ferrous metals, pulp & paper and non-metallic minerals, and other industries. Initial numbers are based on number from ETSAP-TIAM published by KANORS (2010). The development of sectoral growth rates are geared to the GDP numbers and imply a shift in GDP composition towards the service sector, so that agriculture and industry will become less important for the whole economy over the 21st century. To this end, the GDP composition of the most important regions has been extracted from national statistics according to the sectoral aggregation in TIAM. In a next step, the sectoral drivers have been calibrated in such a way that they yield a more service orientated economy. In addition, the driver for the iron & steel industry is geared to historical data on steel production obtained from statistics of the World Steel Association.