Economic activity - BLUES

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Model Documentation - BLUES
Corresponding documentation
Model information
Institution Centro de Economia Energetica e Ambiental/Programa de Planejamento Energetico (Cenergia), Brazil, http://www.coppe.ufrj.br/pt-br/pesquisa/laboratorios/centro-de-economia-energetica-e-ambiental-cenergia.
main users: Alexandre Köberle, Pedro Rochedo, Andre Lucena, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer
Solution concept
Solution method
Anticipation

GDP growth rate projections are based largely on SSPs projections (Dellink et al 2015), with adjustments made for the short-term to reflect current economic activity in Brazil. Short-term projections through 2020 are based on The Focus Bulletin published by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB 2017). The GDP projection of the Reference scenario in BLUES is shown in the figure below.

Population projections for Brazil from IBGE and SSPs/caption>


References

BCB. (2017). Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado. Retrieved September 01, 2017, from https://www3.bcb.gov.br/expectativas/publico/consulta/serieestatisticas

Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., Magné, B., 2015. Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Glob. Environ. Chang. IN PRESS, 1–15. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004