GHGs - GCAM
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|Institution||Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute (PNNL, JGCRI), USA, https://www.pnnl.gov/projects/jgcri.|
|Solution concept||General equilibrium (closed economy)GCAM solves all energy, water, and land markets simultaneously|
|Solution method||Recursive dynamic solution method|
|Anticipation||GCAM is a dynamic recursive model, meaning that decision-makers do not know the future when making a decision today. After it solves each period, the model then uses the resulting state of the world, including the consequences of decisions made in that period - such as resource depletion, capital stock retirements and installations, and changes to the landscape - and then moves to the next time step and performs the same exercise. For long-lived investments, decision-makers may account for future profit streams, but those estimates would be based on current prices. For some parts of the model, economic agents use prior experience to form expectations based on multi-period experiences.|
GCAM endogenously estimates CO2 fossil-fuel related emissions based on fossil fuel consumption and global emission factors by fuel (oil, unconventional oil, natural gas, and coal). These emission factors are consistent with global emissions by fuel from the CDIAC global inventory (CDIAC 2017).
GCAM can be considered as a process model for CO2 emissions and reductions. CO2 emissions change over time as fuel consumption in GCAM endogenously changes. Application of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is explicitly considered as separate technological options for a number of processes, such as electricity generation and fertilizer manufacturing. GCAM, in effect, produces a Marginal Abatement Curve for CO2 as a carbon-price is applied within the model. Documentation for CO2 emissions can be found here.
Non-CO2 GHG Emissions
The non-CO2 greenhouse gases include methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases. These emissions, E, are modeled for any given technology in time period t as:
|F||Emissions factor: base-year emissions per unit activity|
|A||Activity level (e.g., output of a technology)|
|MAC||Marginal Abatement Cost Curve|
Non-CO2 GHG emissions are proportional to the activity except for any reductions in emission intensity due to the MAC curve. As noted above, the MAC curves are assigned to a wide variety of technologies, mapped directly from EPA 2019 (Ou et al. 2021). Under a carbon policy, emissions are reduced by an amount determined by the MAC curve. Documentation for non CO2 emissions can be found here.
Most fluorinated gas emissions are linked either to the industrial sector as a whole (e.g., semiconductor-related F-gas emissions are driven by growth in the “industry” sector), or population and GDP (e.g., fire extinguishers). As those drivers change, emissions will change. Additionally, we include abatement options based on EPA MAC curves. Documentation for fluorinated gas emissions can be found here.
- Boden, T., and Andres, B. 2017, National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2014, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
- US EPA, 2019, Global Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projection & Mitigation Potential Report. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Atmospheric Programs.
- Ou, Y., Roney, C., Alsalam, J., et al. 2021. Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures. Nature Communications 12. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z