Macro-economy - PROMETHEUS

The key marco-economic assumptions are derived from population and GDP developments, including projections for sectoral activities (industries, agriculture, services).

For the EU countries, socio-economic projections are derived from the latest Ageing Report of the European Commission, while for non-EU countries population assumptions are derived from the UN World Population Prospects (Medium fertility variant). The GDP of non-EU countries is derived from the latest IMF short-term economic outlook combined with IEA projections and SSP2 GDP assumptions.

Starting from historical data, which capture local specificities, sectoral economic activity variables are calculated:

• sectoral value added: depend on the level of development in each region, given by GDP per capita (industrialization phase followed by service-based economy);
• industrial physical production: depends on sectoral value added (of industrial sectors), which itself depends on the level of development;
• mobility (for passengers and for goods): depends on the level of GDP per capita and on the cost of transport compared to income
• buildings surfaces: depend on households size (occupancy per dwelling) and surface per dwelling, both depending on personal income.