Energy demand - POLES: Difference between revisions

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The energy demand in POLES is endogenously derived from the following sector-specific drivers: economic activity, end-user energy prices and policies, including time lagged effects. The modeling also considers vintage and fuel / technology subsitution constraints. All economic activity variables are endogenously derived from GDP per capita and energy prices.
Energy demand from the various end-uses (industry, buildings, transport, agriculture) is aggregated into totals that have to be supplied by the energy transformation module.


The model differentiates the following sectors:
The following energy vectors are modelled:
* oil
* gas
* coal
* biofuels (solid: traditional, modern; transport: liquid biofuels: transport)
* electricity
* marketed heat
* hydrogen


# Agriculture (economic activity: value added).
Total demand of energy depends on the relevant activity variable (surfaces, mobility needs, value added) and sectoral energy prices. Competition across fuels takes place based on costs for the user (also considering the lifetime of existing equipment); it is calibrated on historical data on prices and market shares. Additional trends are used to model non-cost drivers (autonomous technological trends or non-price policies such as efficiency standards).
# Industry (value added and physical production), with 4 sub-sectors: Steel, Chemistry, Non-metalic minerals and Other industry; energy uses and non-energy uses of fuels are differentiated.
# Services (value added): substituable energy and captive electricity needs are differentiated
# Residential (surface, occupation rate): substituable energy and captive electricity needs are differentiated
# Transport (mobility): the model differentiates passengers and goods transport, and various transport types: car, motorbike, light duty vehicle, heavy vehicle, train, bus, plane, inland water. Road vehicles are differentiated by engine (ICE, electric, hybrids, fuel cell) and fuel (oil products, biofuels, electricity, hydrogen, gas).
# In addition, own-energy uses and losses in transformation (power, synthetic fuels, ..) are explicitely considered.
 
Historical data on energy demand, activity variables and fuel prices are updated at least once a year from various sources. Energy demand and prices come mostly from: Eurostat, IEA, Enerdata. Energy demand data can be available up to year-1 (for instance in 2013 some data are available up to 2012).

Latest revision as of 17:42, 22 December 2016

Model Documentation - POLES

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.
Solution concept Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method SimulationRecursive simulation
Anticipation Myopic

Energy demand from the various end-uses (industry, buildings, transport, agriculture) is aggregated into totals that have to be supplied by the energy transformation module.

The following energy vectors are modelled:

  • oil
  • gas
  • coal
  • biofuels (solid: traditional, modern; transport: liquid biofuels: transport)
  • electricity
  • marketed heat
  • hydrogen

Total demand of energy depends on the relevant activity variable (surfaces, mobility needs, value added) and sectoral energy prices. Competition across fuels takes place based on costs for the user (also considering the lifetime of existing equipment); it is calibrated on historical data on prices and market shares. Additional trends are used to model non-cost drivers (autonomous technological trends or non-price policies such as efficiency standards).

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