Difference between revisions of "Energy demand - TIAM-UCL"

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|DocumentationCategory=Energy demand
 
|DocumentationCategory=Energy demand
 
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Demand drivers (population, GDP, family units, etc.) are obtained externally, via other models or from accepted other sources. Energy-service demands and respective drivers in the TIAM-UCL are presented in Table '''2-1'''. The demands for energy services are linked to the drivers' projections via elasticities. These elasticities of demands are intended to reflect changing patterns in energy service demands in relation to socio-economic growth, such as saturation in some energy end-use demands, increased urbanization, or changes in consumption patterns once the basic needs are satisfied.  The energy-service demands for future years are projected using the following relationship:
+
Demand drivers (population, GDP, family units, etc.) are obtained externally, via other models or from other sources (e.g. UN statistics, World Bank, IEA). Energy-service demands and respective drivers in the TIAM-UCL are presented in Table '''2-1'''. The demands for energy services are linked to the drivers' projections via elasticities, see bellow. These elasticities of demands are intended to reflect changing patterns in energy service demands in relation to socio-economic growth, such as saturation in some energy end-use demands, increased urbanization, or changes in consumption patterns once the basic needs are satisfied.  The energy-service demands for future years are projected using the following relationship:
  
[[Image:TIAM-UCLIMPORT/attachments/34379438/35815634.png|35815634.png]]
+
[[File:35815634.png]]
  
Where, ''k'' is a constant; it is one for most of the energy services demand. The constant ''k'' is population and number of households when the driver is GDPP and GDPPHOU respectively.
+
Where ''k'' is a constant equal to 1 for most of the energy services demand. The constant ''k'' is population and number of households when the driver is GDP per Person (GDPP) and GDP per Household (GDPPHOU) respectively.
  
 
'''Table 2-1: Energy-services demand and respective drivers'''
 
'''Table 2-1: Energy-services demand and respective drivers'''
  
'''Code'''
+
{| class = "wikitable"
 
+
!Code
'''Description'''
+
!Description
 
+
!Unit
'''Unit'''
+
!Driver
 
+
|-
'''Driver'''
+
|ICH
 
+
|Chemicals
ICH
+
|PJ
 
+
|PCHEM
Chemicals
+
|-
 
+
|IIS
PJ
+
|Iron and Steel
 
+
|Mt
PCHEM
+
|PISNF
 
+
|-
IIS
+
|INF
 
+
|Non-ferrous metals
Iron and Steel
+
|Mt
 
+
|PISNF
Mt
+
|-
 
+
|INM
PISNF
+
|Non Metals
 
+
|PJ
INF
+
|POEI
 
+
|-
Non-ferrous metals
+
|ILP
 
+
|Pulp and Paper
Mt
+
|Mt
 
+
|POEI
PISNF
+
|-
 
+
|IOI
INM
+
|Other Industries
 
+
|PJ
Non Metals
+
|POI
 
+
|-
PJ
+
|I00
 
+
|Other Industrial consumption
POEI
+
|PJ
 
+
|Constant
ILP
+
|-
 
+
|NEO
Pulp and Paper
+
|Industrial and Other Non Energy Uses
 
+
|PJ
Mt
+
|GDP
 
+
|-
POEI
+
|ONO
 
+
|Other non-specified consumption
IOI
+
|PJ
 
+
|GDP
Other Industries
+
|-
 
+
|AGR
PJ
+
|Agricultural demand
 
+
|PJ
POI
+
|PAGR
 
+
|-
I00
+
|CC1
 
+
|Commercial Cooling - Region 1
Other Industrial consumption
+
|PJ
 
+
|PSER
PJ
+
|-
 
+
|CCK
Constant
+
|Commercial Cooking
 
+
|PJ
NEO
+
|PSER
 
+
|-
Industrial and Other Non Energy Uses
+
|CH1
 
+
|Commercial Space Heat - Region 1
PJ
+
|PJ
 
+
|PSER
GDP
+
|-
 
+
|CHW
ONO
+
|Commercial Hot Water
 
+
|PJ
Other non-specified consumption
+
|PSER
 
+
|-
PJ
+
|CLA
 
+
|Commercial Lighting
GDP
+
|PJ
 
+
|PSER
AGR
+
|-
 
+
|COE
Agricultural demand
+
|Commercial Office Equipment
 
+
|PJ
PJ
+
|PSER
 
+
|-
PAGR
+
|CRF
 
+
|Commercial Refrigeration
CC1
+
|PJ
 
+
|PSER
Commercial Cooling - Region 1
+
|-
 
+
|RC1
PJ
+
|Residential Cooling - Region 1
 
+
|PJ
PSER
+
|HOU/GDPPHOU*
 
+
|-
CCK
+
|RCD
 
+
|Residential Clothes Drying
Commercial Cooking
+
|PJ
 
+
|HOU/GDPPHOU*
PJ
+
|-
 
+
|RCW
PSER
+
|Residential Clothes Washing
 
+
|PJ
CH1
+
|HOU/GDPPHOU*
 
+
|-
Commercial Space Heat - Region 1
+
|RDW
 
+
|Residential Dishwashing
PJ
+
|PJ
 
+
|HOU/GDPPHOU*
PSER
+
|-
 
+
|REA
CHW
+
|Residential Other Electric
 
+
|PJ
Commercial Hot Water
+
|HOU/GDPPHOU*
 
+
|-
PJ
+
|RH1
 
+
|Residential Space Heat - Region 1
PSER
+
|PJ
 
+
|HOU
CLA
+
|-
 
+
|RHW
Commercial Lighting
+
|Residential Hot Water
 
+
|PJ
PJ
+
|POP
 
+
|-
PSER<br />
+
|RK1
 
+
|Residential Cooking - Region 1
<br />
+
|PJ
 
+
|POP
COE
+
|-
 
+
|RL1
Commercial Office Equipment
+
|Residential Lighting - Region 1
 
+
|PJ
PJ
+
|GDPP
 
+
|-
PSER
+
|RRF
 
+
|Residential Refrigeration
CRF
+
|PJ
 
+
|HOU/GDPPHOU*
Commercial Refrigeration
+
|-
 
+
|NEU
PJ
+
|Non Energy Uses
 
+
|PJ
PSER
+
|GDP
 
+
|-
RC1
+
|TAD
 
+
|Domestic Aviation
Residential Cooling - Region 1
+
|PJ
 
+
|GDP
PJ
+
|-
 
+
|TAI
HOU/GDPPHOU*
+
|International Aviation
 
+
|PJ
RCD
+
|GDP
 
+
|-
Residential Clothes Drying
+
|TRB
 
+
|Road Bus Demand
PJ
+
|Bv-km
 
+
|POP
HOU/GDPPHOU*
+
|-
 
+
|TRC
RCW
+
|Road Commercial Trucks Demand
 
+
|Bv-km
Residential Clothes Washing
+
|GDP
 
+
|-
PJ
+
|TRE
 
+
|Road Three Wheels Demand
HOU/GDPPHOU*
+
|Bv-km
 
+
|POP
RDW
+
|-
 
+
|TRH
Residential Dishwashing
+
|Road Heavy Trucks Demand
 
+
|Bv-km
PJ
+
|GDP
 
+
|-
HOU/GDPPHOU*
+
|TRL
 
+
|Road Light Vehicle Demand
REA
+
|Bv-km
 
+
|GDP
Residential Other Electric
+
|-
 
+
|TRM
PJ
+
|Road Medium Trucks Demand
 
+
|Bv-km
HOU/GDPPHOU*
+
|GDP
 
+
|-
RH1
+
|TRT
 
+
|Road Auto Demand
Residential Space Heat - Region 1
+
|Bv-km
 
+
|GDPP
PJ
+
|-
 
+
|TRW
HOU
+
|Road Two Wheels Demand
 
+
|Bv-km
RHW
+
|POP
 
+
|-
Residential Hot Water
+
|TTF
 
+
|Rail-Freight
PJ
+
|PJ
 
+
|GDP
POP
+
|-
 
+
|TTP
 
+
|Rail-Passengers
RK1
+
|PJ
 
+
|POP
Residential Cooking - Region 1
+
|-
 
+
|TWD
PJ
+
|Domestic Internal Navigation
 
+
|PJ
POP
+
|GDP
 
+
|-
RL1
+
|TWI
 
+
|International Navigation
Residential Lighting - Region 1
+
|PJ
 
+
|GDP
PJ
+
|}
 
+
*The driver is GDPPHOU for AFR, CHI, CSA, EEU, FSU, IND, MEA, MEX, ODA and SKO
GDPP<br />
 
 
 
<br />
 
 
 
RRF
 
 
 
Residential Refrigeration
 
 
 
PJ
 
 
 
HOU/GDPPHOU*
 
 
 
NEU
 
 
 
Non Energy Uses
 
 
 
PJ
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TAD
 
 
 
Domestic Aviation
 
 
 
PJ
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TAI
 
 
 
International Aviation
 
 
 
PJ
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TRB
 
 
 
Road Bus Demand
 
 
 
Bv-km
 
 
 
POP
 
 
 
TRC
 
 
 
Road Commercial Trucks Demand
 
 
 
Bv-km
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TRE
 
 
 
Road Three Wheels Demand
 
 
 
Bv-km
 
 
 
POP
 
 
 
TRH
 
 
 
Road Heavy Trucks Demand
 
 
 
Bv-km
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TRL
 
 
 
Road Light Vehicle Demand
 
 
 
Bv-km
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TRM
 
 
 
Road Medium Trucks Demand
 
 
 
Bv-km
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TRT
 
 
 
Road Auto Demand
 
 
 
Bv-km
 
 
 
GDPP
 
 
 
TRW
 
 
 
Road Two Wheels Demand
 
 
 
Bv-km
 
 
 
POP
 
 
 
TTF
 
 
 
Rail-Freight
 
 
 
PJ
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TTP
 
 
 
Rail-Passengers
 
 
 
PJ
 
 
 
POP
 
 
 
TWD
 
 
 
Domestic Internal Navigation
 
 
 
PJ
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
TWI
 
 
 
International Navigation
 
 
 
PJ
 
 
 
GDP
 
 
 
*Driver is GDPPHOU for AFR, CHI, CSA, EEU, FSU, IND, MEA, MEX, ODA and SKO
 
  
 
===== '''Driver Elasticity''' =====
 
===== '''Driver Elasticity''' =====
Line 729: Line 597:
  
 
== Behavioural change ==
 
== Behavioural change ==
Behaviour and heterogeneous agents and mostly not explicitly considered and is only really determined through price mechanisms e.g. there is no modal shift in the transport sector.
+
Behaviour and heterogeneous agents are mostly not explicitly considered but are represented via price mechanisms e.g. there is no modal shift in the transport sector. With the exceptions of technology and region specific discount rates and price responsive energy service demands i.e. see Residential sector. Diffusion constraints can be implemented to simulate behavioural inertia (among the other barriers that are not explicitly included in the model).
 
 
The exceptions from this are technology and region specific hurdle rates and price responsive energy service demands i.e. see Residential sector.
 
 
 
Diffusion constraints can be interpreted to simulate also behaviour related inertia (among the other barriers that are not explicitly included in the model).
 

Latest revision as of 19:46, 14 December 2016

Model Documentation - TIAM-UCL

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution University College London (UCL), UK, https://www.ucl.ac.uk.
Solution concept Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method Linear optimisation
Anticipation Perfect Foresight

(Stochastic and myopic runs are also possible)

Demand drivers (population, GDP, family units, etc.) are obtained externally, via other models or from other sources (e.g. UN statistics, World Bank, IEA). Energy-service demands and respective drivers in the TIAM-UCL are presented in Table 2-1. The demands for energy services are linked to the drivers' projections via elasticities, see bellow. These elasticities of demands are intended to reflect changing patterns in energy service demands in relation to socio-economic growth, such as saturation in some energy end-use demands, increased urbanization, or changes in consumption patterns once the basic needs are satisfied. The energy-service demands for future years are projected using the following relationship:

35815634.png

Where k is a constant equal to 1 for most of the energy services demand. The constant k is population and number of households when the driver is GDP per Person (GDPP) and GDP per Household (GDPPHOU) respectively.

Table 2-1: Energy-services demand and respective drivers

Code Description Unit Driver
ICH Chemicals PJ PCHEM
IIS Iron and Steel Mt PISNF
INF Non-ferrous metals Mt PISNF
INM Non Metals PJ POEI
ILP Pulp and Paper Mt POEI
IOI Other Industries PJ POI
I00 Other Industrial consumption PJ Constant
NEO Industrial and Other Non Energy Uses PJ GDP
ONO Other non-specified consumption PJ GDP
AGR Agricultural demand PJ PAGR
CC1 Commercial Cooling - Region 1 PJ PSER
CCK Commercial Cooking PJ PSER
CH1 Commercial Space Heat - Region 1 PJ PSER
CHW Commercial Hot Water PJ PSER
CLA Commercial Lighting PJ PSER
COE Commercial Office Equipment PJ PSER
CRF Commercial Refrigeration PJ PSER
RC1 Residential Cooling - Region 1 PJ HOU/GDPPHOU*
RCD Residential Clothes Drying PJ HOU/GDPPHOU*
RCW Residential Clothes Washing PJ HOU/GDPPHOU*
RDW Residential Dishwashing PJ HOU/GDPPHOU*
REA Residential Other Electric PJ HOU/GDPPHOU*
RH1 Residential Space Heat - Region 1 PJ HOU
RHW Residential Hot Water PJ POP
RK1 Residential Cooking - Region 1 PJ POP
RL1 Residential Lighting - Region 1 PJ GDPP
RRF Residential Refrigeration PJ HOU/GDPPHOU*
NEU Non Energy Uses PJ GDP
TAD Domestic Aviation PJ GDP
TAI International Aviation PJ GDP
TRB Road Bus Demand Bv-km POP
TRC Road Commercial Trucks Demand Bv-km GDP
TRE Road Three Wheels Demand Bv-km POP
TRH Road Heavy Trucks Demand Bv-km GDP
TRL Road Light Vehicle Demand Bv-km GDP
TRM Road Medium Trucks Demand Bv-km GDP
TRT Road Auto Demand Bv-km GDPP
TRW Road Two Wheels Demand Bv-km POP
TTF Rail-Freight PJ GDP
TTP Rail-Passengers PJ POP
TWD Domestic Internal Navigation PJ GDP
TWI International Navigation PJ GDP
  • The driver is GDPPHOU for AFR, CHI, CSA, EEU, FSU, IND, MEA, MEX, ODA and SKO
Driver Elasticity

Driver elasticities determine the sensitivity of changes in energy-service demand to changes in the underlying driver. An elasticity of 1 means that a change of the underlying driver is exactly reflected in the energy-service demand. Energy-service demands with an elasticity below 1 are demand inelastic, while those with an elasticity of one or higher are demand elastic. In general it is assumed that energy-service demands grow slower than the underlying driver, such as GDP, GDP per capita or number of household. This decoupling of energy demand and economic growth is expected to increase during the 21st century so that all elasticities fall. Residential space heating (RH1), for example, has an elasticity of 0.8 in 2010, which drops to 0.5 in 2100. This means that initially the energy demand for space heating increases at 80% of household number growth, the specific underlying driver, and in the 2nd half of the century at only 50% of the household number growth rate.

Table 2-2: Driver elasticities for the United Kingdom

Energy-service demand 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2100
AGR 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6
CC1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4
CCK 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
CH1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3
CHW 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
CLA 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
COE 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
COT 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
CRF 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
I00 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
ICH 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5
IIS 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5
ILP 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5
INF 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5
INM 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5
IOI 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6
NEO 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
NEU 1 1 1 1 0.9 0.5
ONO 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
RCD 1 1 1 1 1 0.8
RCW 1 1 1 1 1 0.8
RDW 1 1 1 1 1 0.8
REA 1 1 1 1 1 0.8
RH1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5
RK1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5
RL1 1 1 1 1 0.9 0.7
ROT 1 1 1 1 1 0.8
RRF 1 1 1 1 1 0.8
RHW 1 1 1 1 1 0.8
TAD 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.1
TAI 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.1
TRB 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
TRC 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4
TRE 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
TRH 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4
TRL 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4
TRM 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4
TRT 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1 0.5
TRW 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
TTF 1 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.1
TTP 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
TWD 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1
TWI 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1

Non-energy demands are not explicitly considered.

Regional GDP per capita is a driver for the model, but there are no income distribution within a given region. Access issues are not considered either.

Regions can be split to additional subregions for the demand level, thus allowing to model demand separately for, for example, urban and rural areas in the Residential sector. Currently, USA and CAN have four and three geographic regions, respectively, while AFR, CHI, IND, MEA and MEX each have two ?sub-regions?, corresponding to rural and urban areas.

Behavioural change

Behaviour and heterogeneous agents are mostly not explicitly considered but are represented via price mechanisms e.g. there is no modal shift in the transport sector. With the exceptions of technology and region specific discount rates and price responsive energy service demands i.e. see Residential sector. Diffusion constraints can be implemented to simulate behavioural inertia (among the other barriers that are not explicitly included in the model).