Fossil energy resources - PROMETHEUS: Difference between revisions
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the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of oil and gas reserves is one of the | |||
most crucial drivers of the world energy system. Conventional and nonconventional oil are distinguished in PROMETHEUS analysis. The former are | |||
differentiated between Gulf and non-Gulf oil, while the latter are distinguished | |||
between Venezuela’s extra heavy oil, Canada’s tar sands and light tight oil. | |||
The uncertainty that surrounds the amount of oil and natural gas that is yet to | |||
be discovered has been incorporated into PROMETHEUS. Using studies | |||
conducted by USGS, stochastic analysis has been carried out in order to obtain | |||
joint distributions for the yet to be discovered oil and gas conventional | |||
resources (endowments) at the starting year of the simulation procedure. | |||
The rate of discovery as well as the rate of recovery of petroleum are | |||
endogenous in the model, they are both positively correlated with the | |||
international oil price and are subject to their own specific uncertainties. Gross | |||
additions to reserves of conventional oil are a function of the yet to be | |||
discovered oil in each region, the international oil price and world oil | |||
production, while the recovery rates of unconventional oil sources are pricedependent and act as a “backstop” preventing the persistence of very high oil | |||
prices. | |||
Gross additions to conventional gas reserves are a function of the yet to be | |||
discovered natural gas and the gross additions to oil reserves, as the | |||
exploration for conventional oil increases the likelihood of gas discoveries. In | |||
addition to conventional gas, unconventional gas (shale, tight and coal bed | |||
methane) is considered in the PROMETHEUS model, the resource base of | |||
which and the uncertainty surrounding it, is derived from a variety of | |||
assessments. | |||
Oil and gas reserves are supplemented by reserve growth arising from known | |||
deposits following assessments by USGS. Apart from statistical dependence | |||
arising from geological factors, exploration and extraction technologies, | |||
hydrocarbon reserves are also linked through their dependence on the | |||
relevant prices which are incorporated in the equations. | |||
Oil production in the Gulf is influenced by the (lagged) reserves to production | |||
ratio in the Middle East and the world oil demand, while oil production | |||
capacity in the Middle East is driven by petroleum demand but it is also subject | |||
to random disruptions, whose variance is determined using historical data. | |||
Conventional oil production in the Rest of the world is driven by the world | |||
demand, the international oil price and reserves of this region. | |||
Revision as of 19:04, 9 September 2020
The PROMETHEUS model differentiates various types of fossil fuels:
- oil: conventional, tar, heavy and oil shale, deepwater;
- gas: conventional, shale gas, tight gas, coalbed methane;
- coal: one generic type is identified.
Note: The documentation of PROMETHEUS is 'under review' and is not yet 'published'!
| Corresponding documentation | |
|---|---|
| Previous versions | |
| No previous version available | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | E3Modelling (E3M), Greece, https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools. |
| Solution concept | Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand) |
| Solution method | Simulation |
| Anticipation | Energy system simulation.Foresight is included only is some sub-modules (i.e. electricity generation) |
the uncertainty surrounding the evolution of oil and gas reserves is one of the
most crucial drivers of the world energy system. Conventional and nonconventional oil are distinguished in PROMETHEUS analysis. The former are
differentiated between Gulf and non-Gulf oil, while the latter are distinguished
between Venezuela’s extra heavy oil, Canada’s tar sands and light tight oil.
The uncertainty that surrounds the amount of oil and natural gas that is yet to
be discovered has been incorporated into PROMETHEUS. Using studies
conducted by USGS, stochastic analysis has been carried out in order to obtain
joint distributions for the yet to be discovered oil and gas conventional
resources (endowments) at the starting year of the simulation procedure.
The rate of discovery as well as the rate of recovery of petroleum are
endogenous in the model, they are both positively correlated with the
international oil price and are subject to their own specific uncertainties. Gross
additions to reserves of conventional oil are a function of the yet to be
discovered oil in each region, the international oil price and world oil
production, while the recovery rates of unconventional oil sources are pricedependent and act as a “backstop” preventing the persistence of very high oil
prices.
Gross additions to conventional gas reserves are a function of the yet to be
discovered natural gas and the gross additions to oil reserves, as the
exploration for conventional oil increases the likelihood of gas discoveries. In
addition to conventional gas, unconventional gas (shale, tight and coal bed
methane) is considered in the PROMETHEUS model, the resource base of
which and the uncertainty surrounding it, is derived from a variety of
assessments.
Oil and gas reserves are supplemented by reserve growth arising from known
deposits following assessments by USGS. Apart from statistical dependence
arising from geological factors, exploration and extraction technologies,
hydrocarbon reserves are also linked through their dependence on the
relevant prices which are incorporated in the equations.
Oil production in the Gulf is influenced by the (lagged) reserves to production
ratio in the Middle East and the world oil demand, while oil production
capacity in the Middle East is driven by petroleum demand but it is also subject
to random disruptions, whose variance is determined using historical data.
Conventional oil production in the Rest of the world is driven by the world
demand, the international oil price and reserves of this region.