Difference between revisions of "Macro-economy - POLES"

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In POLES key macro-economic assumptions are exogenous: population and growth if GDP per capita. Information comes from external sources: population usually from the UN Population Prospects (latest: the 2012 revision), GDP information from international sources (IMF, MIT, CEPII, national and regional estimates, ..). The consistency between population and income assumptions is checked.
 
  
An on-going work will allow connecting POLES to the macro-econometric model MAGE (CEPII) through the use of an "energy factor" in the MAGE production function, allowing to use a more dynamic relation between GDP and energy.
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The key marco-economic assumptions are derived from population and GDP.
  
The key marco-economic assumptions are then derived into sectoral economic activity variables:
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Starting from historical data, which capture local specificities, sectoral economic activity variables are calculated:
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* sectoral value added: depend on the level of development of the country/region, given by GDP per capita (industrialization phase followed by service-based economy);
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* industrial physical production: depend on demand, which itself depends on the level of development;
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* mobility (for passengers and for goods): depend on the cost of transport compared to income, and is declined in equipment rates and degree of utilisation of this equipment;
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* buildings surfaces: depend on households size (occupancy per dwelling) and surface per dwelling, both depending on personal income.
  
* sectoral value added depend on the level of development of the country / region, given by the GDP per capita;
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<figure id="fig:POLES_4">
 
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[[File:36405548.png|none|400px|thumb|<caption>Share of value-added as a function of GDP per capita</caption>]]
[[File:36405548.png]]
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</figure>
'''Figure 1'''. Share of value-added as a function of GDP per capita
 
 
 
* industrial physical production depends on demand, which is itself depending on the level of development;
 
* mobility (for passengers and for goods) depends on the cost of transport compared to income, and is declined in equipment rates, degree of utilisation of this equipment, etc.. ;
 
* building surfaces depend on households size (cohabitation) and surface per dwelling, both depending on personal income.
 
 
 
All variables also depend on historical data, that capture local specificities.
 

Latest revision as of 16:37, 22 December 2016

Model Documentation - POLES

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.
Solution concept Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method SimulationRecursive simulation
Anticipation Myopic

The key marco-economic assumptions are derived from population and GDP.

Starting from historical data, which capture local specificities, sectoral economic activity variables are calculated:

  • sectoral value added: depend on the level of development of the country/region, given by GDP per capita (industrialization phase followed by service-based economy);
  • industrial physical production: depend on demand, which itself depends on the level of development;
  • mobility (for passengers and for goods): depend on the cost of transport compared to income, and is declined in equipment rates and degree of utilisation of this equipment;
  • buildings surfaces: depend on households size (occupancy per dwelling) and surface per dwelling, both depending on personal income.
Figure 1: Share of value-added as a function of GDP per capita