Model concept, solver and details - IMAGE: Difference between revisions
No edit summary |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 21: | Line 21: | ||
|Fair model | |Fair model | ||
|Climate policy and policy response | |Climate policy and policy response | ||
|PBL | |[http://www.pbl.nl/en PBL] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|IMAGE land use model | |IMAGE land use model | ||
|Land use and global change | |Land use and global change | ||
|PBL | |[http://www.pbl.nl/en PBL] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|LPJmL model | |LPJmL model | ||
|Carbon, vegetation, agriculture and water | |Carbon, vegetation, agriculture and water | ||
|[http://www.wageningenur.nl/en/Expertise-Services/Research-Institutes/lei.htm | |[http://www.wageningenur.nl/en/Expertise-Services/Research-Institutes/lei.htm LEI] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|MAGICC model | |MAGICC model | ||
|Atmospheric composition and climate | |Atmospheric composition and climate | ||
|[http://wiki.magicc.org/index.php?title=MAGICC_team | |[http://wiki.magicc.org/index.php?title=MAGICC_team MAGICC team] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|TIMER model | |TIMER model | ||
|Energy supply and demand | |Energy supply and demand | ||
|PBL | |[http://www.pbl.nl/en PBL] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''Associated computer models''' | |'''Associated computer models''' | ||
| Line 47: | Line 47: | ||
|GISMO model | |GISMO model | ||
|Impacts on human development | |Impacts on human development | ||
|PBL | |[http://www.pbl.nl/en PBL] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|GLOBIO model | |GLOBIO model | ||
|Impacts on biodiversity | |Impacts on biodiversity | ||
|PBL | |[http://www.pbl.nl/en PBL] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|GLOFRIS model | |GLOFRIS model | ||
|Flood risk assessment | |Flood risk assessment | ||
|PBL, [http://www.deltares.nl | |PBL, [http://www.deltares.nl Deltares], [http://www.uu.nl/EN/Pages/default.aspx UU], [http://www.ivm.vu.nl IVM] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|'''Related computer models''' | |'''Related computer models''' | ||
| Line 61: | Line 61: | ||
|GUAM model | |GUAM model | ||
|Health | |Health | ||
|PBL | |[http://www.pbl.nl/en PBL] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Impact model | |Impact model | ||
|Agricultural economy | |Agricultural economy | ||
|[http://www.ifpri.org/ | |[http://www.ifpri.org/ IFPRI] | ||
|- | |- | ||
|MAGNET model | |MAGNET model | ||
|Agriculture economy | |Agriculture economy | ||
|[http://www.wageningenur.nl/en/Expertise-Services/Research-Institutes/lei.htm | |[http://www.wageningenur.nl/en/Expertise-Services/Research-Institutes/lei.htm LEI] | ||
|} | |} | ||
</figtable> | </figtable> | ||
Revision as of 12:31, 13 January 2017
| Corresponding documentation | |
|---|---|
| Previous versions | |
| Model information | |
| Model link | |
| Institution | PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Netherlands, https://www.pbl.nl/en. |
| Solution concept | Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand) |
| Solution method | Simulation |
| Anticipation | Simulation modelling framework, without foresight. However, a simplified version of the energy/climate part of the model (called FAIR) can be run prior to running the framework to obtain data for climate policy simulations. |
IMAGE framework
The IMAGE framework can best be described as an integrated assessment simulation model, that describes the relevant economic and environmental processes with a considerable amount of physical detail. IMAGE has been set-up as an integrated assessment framework in a modular structure, with some components linked directly to the model code of IMAGE, and others connected through soft links (the models run independently with data exchange via data files). This architecture provides more flexibility to develop components separately and to perform sensitivity analyses, recognising that feedback may not always be strong enough to warrant full integration. For example, the various components of the Earth system are fully linked on a daily or annual basis. However, components of the Human system, such as the TIMER energy model and the agro-economic model MAGNET, are linked via a soft link, and can also be run independently.
The IMAGE core model comprises most parts of the Human system and the Earth system, including the energy system, land-use, and the plant growth, carbon and water cycle model LPJmL. The IMAGE framework includes soft-linked models, such as the agro-economic model MAGNET, and PBL policy and impact models, such as FAIR (climate policy), GLOBIO (biodiversity), GLOFRIS (flood risks) and GISMO (human development).
<figtable id="tab:IMAGE_1">
| Computer model | Subject | Developed by |
|---|---|---|
| Fair model | Climate policy and policy response | PBL |
| IMAGE land use model | Land use and global change | PBL |
| LPJmL model | Carbon, vegetation, agriculture and water | LEI |
| MAGICC model | Atmospheric composition and climate | MAGICC team |
| TIMER model | Energy supply and demand | PBL |
| Associated computer models | ||
| CLUMondo model | Land-use allocation | |
| GISMO model | Impacts on human development | PBL |
| GLOBIO model | Impacts on biodiversity | PBL |
| GLOFRIS model | Flood risk assessment | PBL, Deltares, UU, IVM |
| Related computer models | ||
| GUAM model | Health | PBL |
| Impact model | Agricultural economy | IFPRI |
| MAGNET model | Agriculture economy | LEI |
</figtable>
Computer models are classified in: core, associated and related models.
- Core IMAGE models are used for the integrated assessments projects and developed by the IMAGE team or in close collaboration with partners.
- Associated models use the results of the core models to compute various impacts. These models are developed in consultation with the IMAGE team
- Related models are not part of the IMAGE framework, but may be used in the framework, depending on the type of project. They are not developed by the IMAGE team.
Uncertainty
Systematic uncertainty analyses have been performed on the individual IMAGE models. In addition, IMAGE has been assessed in model comparison projects (e.g., Energy Modelling Forum, AMPERE, LIMITS and AgMIP via MAGNET) IMG_vonlampe_2013. These studies also contribute to understanding key uncertainties, as the experiments in these projects tend to be set up in the form of sensitivity runs, in which comparison with other models provides useful insights. An overview of key uncertainties in the IMAGE framework is presented in the table below.
<figtable id="tab:IMAGE_1">
| Model component | Uncertainty |
|---|---|
| Drivers | Overall population size, economic growth |
| Agricultural systems | Yield improvements, meat consumption, total consumption rates |
| Energy systems | Preferences, energy policies, technology development, resources |
| Emissions | Emission factors, in particular those in energy system |
| Land cover / carbon cycle | Intensification versus expansion, effect of climate change on soil respiration, CO2, fertilization effect |
| N-cycle | Nutrient use efficiencies |
| Water cycle | Groundwater use, patterns of climate change |
| Climate system | Climate sensitivity, patterns of climate change |
| Biodiversity | Biodiversity effect values, effect of infrastructure and fragmentation |
</figtable>