Production system and representation of economic sectors - POLES

Model Documentation - POLES
Model scope and methods - POLES Model concept, solver and details - POLES Temporal dimension - POLES Spatial dimension - POLES Policy - POLES Socio-economic drivers - POLES Population - POLES Economic activity - POLES Macro-economy - POLES Production system and representation of economic sectors - POLES Energy - POLES Energy resource endowments - POLES Fossil energy resources - POLES Uranium and other fissile resources - POLES Bioenergy - POLES Non-biomass renewables - POLES Energy conversion - POLES Electricity - POLES Heat - POLES Gaseous fuels - POLES Liquid fuels - POLES Solid fuels - POLES Grid, pipelines and other infrastructure - POLES Energy end-use - POLES Transport - POLES Residential and commercial sectors - POLES Industrial sector - POLES Other end-use - POLES Energy demand - POLES Technological change in energy - POLES Land-use - POLES Emissions - POLES Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options - POLES Climate - POLES Non-climate sustainability dimension - POLES Appendices - POLES Data - POLES References - POLES
Corresponding documentation
AIM-Hub BLUES C3IAM COFFEE-TEA DNE21+ GEM-E3 GRACE IMACLIM IMAGE POLES PROMETHEUS REMIND-MAgPIE TIAM-UCL
Previous versions
Archive of POLES version ADVANCE
Model information
Model link	http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/poles-jrc-model-documentation-0
Institution	JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.
Solution concept	Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method	SimulationRecursive simulation
Anticipation	Myopic

Sectoral disaggregation

All economic activity variables are endogenously derived from GDP per capita and energy prices. The energy demand in POLES is endogenously derived from sector-specific drivers: economic activity, end-user energy prices and policies, including time lagged effects. The modeling also considers vintage and fuel / technology substitution constraints.

The model differentiates the following sectors:

• Agriculture (economic activity: value added)
• Industry (value added and physical production), with 4 sub-sectors:
  • Steel, Chemistry, Non-metallic minerals and Other industry; energy uses and non-energy uses of fuels are differentiated.
• Services (value added): substitutable energy and captive electricity needs are differentiated
• Residential (surface, occupation rate): needs for space heating, water heating, space cooling, cooking, appliances and lighting are differentiated
• Transport (mobility), with 4 sub-sectors:
  • Road, Rail, Water, Air; additionally, international maritime bunkers and international air bunkers are differentiated.
  • The model differentiates passengers and goods transport, and various transport types: car, motorbikes, light duty vehicle, heavy duty vehicles.
  • Road vehicles are differentiated by engine (ICE, electric, hybrids, fuel cell) and fuel (oil products, biofuels, electricity, hydrogen, gas).
• In addition, own-energy uses and losses in transformation (power, synthetic fuels, ..) are explicitly considered.

Historical data on energy demand, activity variables and fuel prices are updated at least once a year from various sources. Energy demand and prices come mostly from: Eurostat, IEA, Enerdata. Energy demand data can be available up to year-1.

Behavioural change

Behavioral changes is captured in 2 ways in POLES:

• a change of the economic activity (applies to Residential and Transport): this change depends on income and energy prices through appropriate elasiticies;
• a change in the rate of use of energy consuming equipment: this change depend on energy prices through short-term elasticities.