Economic activity - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

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Model Documentation - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria,
Solution concept General equilibrium (closed economy)
Solution method Optimization

In addition to population economic development has a strong impact on the challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Generally, a poorer, less educated population will have more difficulty adapting to the detrimental effects of climate change (O’Neill et al., 2014 MSG-GLB_oneill_new_2014). The primary drivers of future energy demand in MESSAGEix are projections of total population and GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, denoted as GDP (PPP). In the MESSAGEix-Access version of the model households are represented by income level (and rural/urban split) in developing country regions.

MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM utilizes GDP (PPP) projections based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that are available at the country level SSP database. In the SSPs, GDP development follows regional historical trends (Dellink et al., 2015 MSG-GLB_dellink_long-term_2015). In SSP2 specifically, average income grows by a factor of six and reaches about 60,000 USD/capita by the end of the century (all GDP/capita figures use USD2005 and purchasing-power-parity – PPP). The SSP2 GDP projection is situated in-between the estimates for SSP1 and SSP3, which reach global average income levels of 82,000 USD2005 and 22,000 USD2005, respectively, by the end of the century. SSP2 depicts a future of global progress where developing countries achieve significant economic growth. Today, average per capita income in the global North is about five times higher than in the global South. In SSP2, developing countries reach today’s average income levels of the OECD between 2060 and 2090, depending on the region. Overall, the GDP developments in SSP2 are designed to be situated in the middle of the road between SSP1 and SSP3, see Dellink et al (2015) MSG-GLB_dellink_long-term_2015 for details. (Fricko et al., 2016 MSG-GLB_fricko_marker_2016)