Economic activity - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

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Model Documentation - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
Corresponding documentation
Model information
Institution International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Concept Hybrid model (energy engineering and land use partial equilibrium models soft-linked to macro-economic general equilibrium model)
Solution method Hybrid model (linear program optimization for the energy systems and land-use modules, non-linear program optimization for the macro-economic module)
Anticipation Myopic/Perfect Foresight (MESSAGE can be run both with perfect foresight and myopically, while GLOBIOM runs myopically)

In addition to population economic development has a strong impact on the challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Generally, a poorer, less educated population will have more difficulties to adapt to the detrimental effects of climate change (O’Neill et al., 2014 1). The primary drivers of future energy demand in MESSAGE are projections of total population and GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, denoted as GDP (PPP). In the MESSAGE-Access version of the model households are represented by income level (and rural/urban split) in developing country regions.

MESSAGE-GLOBIOM utilizes GDP (PPP) projections based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that are available at the country level SSP database. In the SSPs, GDP development follows regional historical trends (Dellink et al., 2015 2). In SSP2 specifically, average income grows by a factor of six and reaches about 60,000 USD/capita by the end of the century (all GDP/capita figures use USD2005 and purchasing-power-parity – PPP). The SSP2 GDP projection is situated in-between the estimates for SSP1 and SSP3, which reach global average income levels of 82,000 USD2005 and 22,000 USD2005, respectively, by the end of the century. SSP2 depicts a future of global progress where developing countries achieve significant economic growth. Today, average per capita income in the global North is about five times higher than in the global South. In SSP2, developing countries reach today’s average income levels of the OECD between 2060 and 2090, depending on the region. Overall, the GDP developments in SSP2 are designed to be situated in the middle of the road between SSP1 and SSP3, see Dellink et al (2015) 2 for details. (Fricko et al., 2016 3)

References

  1. ^  Brian C O’Neill, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Kristie L Ebi, Stephane Hallegatte, Timothy R Carter, Ritu Mathur, Detlef P van Vuuren (2014). A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change, 122 (3), 387--400.
  2. a b  Rob Dellink, Jean Chateau, Elisa Lanzi, Bertrand Magné (2015). Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change, ().
  3. ^  Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Joeri Rogelj, Zbigniew Klimont, Mykola Gusti, Nils Johnson, Peter Kolp, Manfred Strubegger, Hugo Valin, Markus Amann, Tatiana Ermolieva, Nicklas Forsell, Mario Herrero, Chris Heyes, Georg Kindermann, Volker Krey, David L McCollum, Michael Obersteiner, Shonali Pachauri, Shilpa Rao, Erwin Schmid, Wolfgang Schoepp, Keywan Riahi (2016). The marker quantification of the shared socioeconomic pathway 2: a middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, In press ().