Energy resource endowments - DNE21+
|Model Documentation - DNE21+|
|Institution||Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)|
Estimation of fossil fuel reserves refers to a number of studies, and supply cost curves for each resources are made based on economic and technological assumptions. For coal resource assessment ?Survey of Energy Resources? by the World Energy Council (WEC) is mainly referred to. The USGS 1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources, the USGS Survey world petroleum assessment 2000: Description and results, and Rogner (1997) were used for conventional/non-conventional coal and gas reserve estimation.
The resource potentials are modeled using region-specific potentials, and they are classified into different grades. With IEA World Energy Outlook and Rogner (1997), fossil fuel supply curves are created as shown below. This grade structure with royalty and transportation costs allows to calculate supply chain optimization of global energy systems.
Figure 7 Cumulative Global Coal Supply Curve
Figure 8 Distribution of Conventional Oil Resources (Source) USGS
Figure 9 Cumulative Global Oil Supply Curve (incl. Non-conventional)
Figure 10 Distribution of Conventional Natural Gas Resources (Source) USGS
Figure 11 Cumulative Global Gas Supply Curve (incl. Non-conventional)
In DNE21+, emissions from fossil fuel combustion can be curbed by deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS). Storage potential was estimated based on a sedimentary basin map of USGS. The ?ideal? potential of aquifer sequestration is shown in Figure 12.
Figure 12 CO2 Sequestration Potential into Aquifer
The resource potentials for solar and wind are estimated by using physical data combined with global land cover data developed by Chiba University. With globally gridded wind speed data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and land use/cover GIS data, wind potentials are estimated as shown in Figure 13. The region-specific potentials are classified into five grades, and the technical potentials for wind power amount to 13,750 TWh/yr. Potentials of photovoltaics are estimated by solar radiation data offered by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project, and land-use data. Figure 15 overlays solar radiation intensity on a global map. In total, the solar potentials amount to 1,270,000 TWh/yr.
Wind power and photovoltaics is assumed to have an annual costs decrease rate of 1.0% and 3.4%, respectively. In 2000, the unit costs of wind power is 56? 118$/MWh and photovoltaics 209?720$/MWh, depending on wind velocity and solar radiation etc. In 2050, the unit costs of wind power and photovoltaics are assumed to become 34?71$/MWh and 37?128$/MWh, respectively.
Figure 13 Resources of wind power
Figure 14 Regional supply potential for wind power (TWh/yr)
Figure 15 Solar radiation intensity (Annual Average)
Figure 16 Regional supply potential for solar power (PV) (TWh/yr)
Currently hydropower plays an important part in global power generation and is the most common form of renewable energy. The overall technical potential for hydropower is estimated to 25,000 TWh/yr, using the WEC?s ?Survey of Energy Resources? as a reference.
Figure 17 Regional supply potential of Hydro and Geothermal (TWh/yr)
For biomass resource assessment, DNE21+ employs the LULUCF model results on available land area for biomass production and afforestation, and land are productivity. Waste-based biomass potentials are also taken into calculation as a constraint of the DNE21+ model. Exogenous scenario is given for the future traditional biomass.
Figure 18 Available land potential for cellulosic biomass or afforestation
Figure 19 Available land potential for Biomass Residues
Figure 20 Available land potential for Traditional Biomass