Model Documentation - IFs

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Alert-warning.png Note: The documentation of IFs is 'under review' and is not yet 'published'!

Model Documentation - IFs

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver (Pardee Center), Colorado, USA,
Solution concept
Solution method Dynamic recursive with annual time steps through 2100.
Anticipation Myopic

International Futures (IFs) is a long-term integrated assessment model or system which is a collection of several hard–linked, directly interconnected models (sometimes referred to as modules). It is dynamic recursive with annual time steps to 2100. It represents 186 countries connected through a variety of flows, facilitates aggregation of them to global regions, and allows subdivision of them into more local socio-political units. The IFs system is available for use by others both on-line and in a downloadable version, and it is open source. Major models in IFs (see Figure below) include

  • a multistate population model (which represents 22 age sex cohorts to age 100+ and differentiates their educational attainment and cause-specific mortality patterns).
  • a multisector general equilibrium economic model (which uses inventories as buffer stocks and to provide price signals so that the model chases equilibrium over time); it provides labor, investment, and consumption information to partial equilibrium energy and agriculture models.
  • an education model that tracks grade-by-grade student progression and aging of adults with variable attainment levels.
  • a health model that represents age-sex specific mortality and morbidly by 15 causes of death.
  • socio-political representations that include governance capacity and finance, wrapping the economic model in a broader social accounting matrix.
  • an energy model (which portrays production of six energy types: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewable). Physical values from the partial equilibrium model are converted to currency values to replace those in the general equilibrium economic model.
  • an agricultural model (which is a partial equilibrium model in which food stocks buffer imbalances between production and consumption and determine price changes); the model represents crop, gazing, forest, developed and other land. As with energy, physical values converted to monetary values override those in the general equilibrium model.
  • an infrastructure model that projects paved roads, access to safe water and sanitation, electricity access, and access to various forms of information and communications technology,
  • an environmental model, which allows tracking of remaining resources of fossil fuels, area of forested land, water supply-demand, atmospheric carbon dioxide, and changes in temperature and precipitation.
  • an implicit technology model, which allows changes in assumptions about rates of technological advance in health, agriculture, energy, and the broader economy.

The basic models of the IFs system