Policy - IFs

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Alert-warning.png Note: The documentation of IFs is 'under review' and is not yet 'published'!
Model Documentation - IFs
Corresponding documentation
Model information
Institution Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver https://pardee.du.edu/ (Pardee Center), Colorado, USA, .
Solution concept
Solution method Dynamic recursive with annual time steps through 2100.
Anticipation Myopic

All model parameters and initial conditions are accessible via the interlace and therefore changeable by users. Example areas where policy interventions can be introduced into the model are

  • Demographics: fertility, mortality (in more detail via the health model), and migration—all of which affect population growth and level.
  • Economics: on the production side are investment, labor force participation, and productivity (via assumptions about systemic advance, convergence rate, and a wide range of specific endogenous drivers); interventions are also possible on savings levels and consumption patterns and on patterns of trade.
  • Education: enrollment, continuation, and completion/transition rates; spending levels.
  • Health: mortality and morbidity rates across 15 different causes.
    • government revenue and expenditure patterns from multiple sources and to multiple targets; corruption and democracy levels; status of women; value change.
  • Geopolitics: Country and regional power levels.
  • Food and Agriculture: Land use and yield/production levels; trade patterns—all of which affect calorie availability and malnutrition rates.
  • Energy: Resource and production level by energy type including renewable energy share, demand level and patterns.
  • Infrastructure: investment and access extension by type (road, water, sanitation, electricity, ICT).
  • Environment: atmospheric carbon dioxide levels via interventions in models noted above (e.g. land use, carbon intensity of energy); water demand by final use and water supply by source.

Prepackaged scenario intervention files also allow integrated analysis of scenario sets including the UNEP GEO-4 set and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) set.