Residential and commercial sectors - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
|Institution||International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, http://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at.|
|Solution concept||General equilibrium (closed economy)|
The residential and commercial sector in MESSAGE distinguishes two demand categories, thermal and specific. Thermal demand, i.e. low temperature heat, can be supplied by a variety of different energy carriers while specific demand requires electricity (or a decentralized technology to convert other energy carriers to electricity).
This stylized residential and commercial thermal energy demand includes fuel switching as the main option, i.e. different choices about final energy forms to provide thermal energy. In addition to the alternative energy carriers that serve as input to these thermal energy supply options, their relative efficiencies also vary. For example, solid fuels such as coal have lower conversion efficiencies than natural gas, direct electric heating or electric heat pumps. Additional demand reduction in response to price increases in policy scenarios is included via the fuel switching option (due to the fuel-specific relative efficiencies) as well as via the linkage with the macro-economic model MACRO (see Figure 1 below). The specific residential and commercial demand can be satisfied either by electricity from the grid or with decentralized electricity generation options such as fuel cells or CHP.
To reflect limitations of switching to alternative fuels, for example as a result of limited infrastructure availability (e.g., district heating network) or some energy carriers being unsuitable for certain applications, share constraints of energy carriers (e.g., electricity) and energy carrier groups (e.g., liquid fuels) are used in the residential and commercial sector. In addition, the diffusion of speed of alternative fuels is limited to mimic bottlenecks in the supply chains, not explicitly represented in MESSAGE (e.g., non-energy related infrastructure).
Table 1 presents the quantitative translation of the the storyline elements of SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 in terms of electrification rate for the residential and commercial sectors. These indicators apply to 2010-2100; Intensity improvements are in FE/GDP annually (Fricko et al., 2016 1).
|Residential & Commercial||High electrification rate:1.44% (Regional range from 0.35% to 4%)||Medium electrification rate: 1.07% (Regional range from 0.23% to 3%)||Low electrification rate: 0.87% (Regional range from 0.37% to 2%)|
- Oliver Fricko, Petr Havlik, Joeri Rogelj, Zbigniew Klimont, Mykola Gusti, Nils Johnson, Peter Kolp, Manfred Strubegger, Hugo Valin, Markus Amann, Tatiana Ermolieva, Nicklas Forsell, Mario Herrero, Chris Heyes, Georg Kindermann, Volker Krey, David L McCollum, Michael Obersteiner, Shonali Pachauri, Shilpa Rao, Erwin Schmid, Wolfgang Schoepp, Keywan Riahi (2016). The marker quantification of the shared socioeconomic pathway 2: a middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, In press (). |