Residential and commercial sectors - TIAM-UCL
|Institution||University College London (UCL), UK, https://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/energy.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Solution method||Linear optimisation|
(Stochastic and myopic runs are also possible)
Residential sector final energy consumption calibration is carried out in the Base-Year template for residential, commercial and agriculture sectors. The template uses IEA residential sector final consumption data for the base-year 2005. It also includes details for residential sector fuels and all existing technologies in residential sector. The template also captures residential sector emissions. All new technologies that are available after the first year (base-year) are modelled separately. Selected energy-services in the residential sector also have demand data at the sub-regional level for certain regions in order to have different growth rates.
Energy service demands
The residential sector includes 11 energy-services as presented in Table 3-4-3. All energy-service demands are in PJ. In the residential sector, some segments are identified using more than one abbreviation, which means that the demand can be disaggregated in four or less sub-regions. Currently, USA and CAN have four and three geographic regions, respectively, while AFR, CHI, IND, MEA and MEX each have two sub-regions, corresponding to rural and urban areas. When no sub-regions have been defined, the abbreviation for sub-region 1 is used by default. Energy service demands are projected to 2100 using general economic and demographic drivers (population, GDP and GDP per capita). To develop projections of future energy-service demands, estimates of drivers are used in conjunction with user assumptions on the topic of service demand sensitivity to these drivers (see Section on demand projections and drivers). Growth rates for residential lighting are relatively high in selected sub-regions in the developing world. This is because of very low level of electrification at present (base-year) in these sub-regions.
Table 3.4.3: Residential sector energy-services
|Residential Clothes Drying|
|Residential Clothes Washing|
|Residential Other Electric|
|Residential Space Heat|
|Residential Hot Water|
The same fuels (both Existing and New) are used in both the Residential and Commercial sectors.
Residential sector existing end-use technologies are modelled in the Base-Year templates. No investment can be made in existing technologies. New technologies progressively replace the existing ones as they reach the end of their technology life assumptions. For each end-use energy-service, a number of existing technologies are in competition to satisfy the demand. They are characterized by an efficiency, an annual utilization factor, a lifetime, operation costs, and six seasonal share coefficients (summer-day, summer-night, intermediary-day, intermediary-night, winter-day, winter-night). The sum product of the final energy consumption and the efficiency of technologies give the base-year demand value. Region specific hurdle rates, which are used to annualise investment cost of the residential end-use technologies, has been applied to residential sector technologies.
Commercial sector base-year final energy consumption is calibrated in the residential sector Base-Year template, which has separate work sheets for commercial sector IEA data, sector fuel data, end-use technology data and emissions data. There are separate sheets available for technology data for each energy-service demand.
Energy services demand
The commercial sector includes eight energy service demands for each region as presented in Table 3.4.1. Some segments of the commercial sector energy-services are identified using more than one code, which means that the demand can be disaggregated in four or less sub-regions.When no sub-regions have been defined, the codes for sub-region 1 are used by default. Currently, USA and CAN have four and three geographic regions, respectively, while AFR, CHI, IND, MEA and MEX each have two sub-regions, corresponding to rural and urban areas. The energy-service demands for the future period (2005-2100) are projected using appropriate drivers and elasticities.
Table 3.4.1: Energy-services in commercial sector
|Commercial Space Heat|
|Commercial Hot Water|
|Commercial Office Equipment|
Table 3.4.2 contains details of existing fuel technologies (each also has a new fuel technology vintage) for the commercial sector. Commercial sector emissions factor to capture commercial sector emissions are also included in the Base-Year template.
Table 3.4.2: commercial sector fuel technologies-existing
|Fuel Tech - Natural Gas Mix (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Diesel (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Heavy Fuel Oil (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Kerosene (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Coal (COM) - Existing|
|Fuel Tech - Liquefied Petroleum Gases (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Biofuels (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Geothermal (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Solar (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Electricity (COM)|
|Fuel Tech - Heat (COM)|
There are a number of existing technologies modelled for each energy service demand in the Base-Year template for each region and sub-region. For each energy service demand, a number of technologies are in competition to satisfy the demand. They are characterized by an efficiency, an annual utilization factor, a lifetime, operation costs, and six seasonal share coefficients (summer-day, summer-night, intermediary-day, intermediary-night, winter-day, winter-night). A list of new technologies are modelled. These technologies are available after the first period (base-year) and progressively replace the existing ones as they reach the end of their technology life assumptions. In addition to parameters specified for existing technologies, new technology descriptions include information such as technology cost. The parameters such as cost, efficiency, etc., can improve over the years with vintages. Regional specific hurdle rates, which is used to annualised the investment cost, are used for commercial end-use technologies.