Transport - TIAM-UCL
|Institution||University College London (UCL), UK, https://www.ucl.ac.uk.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Solution method||Linear optimisation|
(Stochastic and myopic runs are also possible)
Energy services demand
The transportation sector is characterized by 14 energy-services plus one non-energy use demand segment (Table 3.3.1). Six of the energy-services are considered as generic demands: international and domestic aviation, freight and passenger rail transportation, domestic and international navigation. All other energy-services are for road transport. The non-energy use is predominately the demand lubricants. Demand for road transport energy-services is expressed in billion vehicle km (b-vkm) and others are in PJ. The model projects energy-services demands for each region.
Table 3.3.1: Energy-service demands in transport sector
|Road Bus Demand|
|Road Commercial Trucks Demand|
|Road Three Wheels Demand|
|Road Heavy Trucks Demand|
|Road Light Vehicle Demand|
|Road Medium Trucks Demand|
|Road Auto Demand|
|Road Two Wheels Demand|
|Domestic Internal Navigation|
Table 3.3.2 presents the list of transport fuels available to meet the base-year energy-service demand in each transport subsector. Diesel and gasoline are considered as the conventional fuels and the other are alternative fuels which are introduced later. Jet fuel and electricity are available to meet aviation demand.
Table 3.3.2: transport fuels
For each end-use, a number of new (i.e. available after the base year of 2005) technologies are in competition to satisfy the energy-services demand for future years. Efficiency and cost of these technologies improve over the period with vintages. These technologies progressively replace the existing ones (i.e. those used in the base year) and they are characterized by the same type of parameters such as efficiency, and investment cost. There are many new technologies available for the road transport sector whereas technological detail is very limited in rail, shipping and aviation modes. Investment and O&M costs shown are US dollar reference prices. They are multiplied by regionally specific factors for each region. Technology and regional specific hurdle rates, which are used to annualise the investment cost, are also applied.
As an outcome of the ADVANCE project, TIAM-UCL can now explicitly distinguish up to 27 different types of vehicle users (e.g., urban or rural, frequent or less frequent, risk averse or novelty-seeking). Non-financial vehicle attributes including novelty, range, and refueling availability can also now influence vehicle choices in an explicit way. Consumers' preferences for these attributes have been monetized drawing on the expertise of a detailed transport sector model (MA3T). These 'intangible' costs and benefits have been included alongside pure financial costs in the investment cost calculations influencing vehicle choice. Importantly, these additional terms vary uniquely by consumer type, by region, and by vehicle technology.