Fossil energy resources - REMIND-MAgPIE: Difference between revisions

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REMIND characterizes exhaustible resources such as coal, oil, gas, and uranium in terms of extraction cost curves. Fossil resources (e.g., oil, coal, and gas) are further defined by decline rates and adjustment costs (Bauer et al. 2013). Extraction costs increase over time as low-cost deposits become exhausted (Herfindahl 1967; Rogner 1997; Aguilera et al. 2009; BGR 2010; Rogner et al. 2012). In REMIND, we use region-specific extraction cost curves that relate production cost increases to cumulative extraction (IHS CERA 2012; Rogner et al. 2012).
REMIND characterizes exhaustible resources such as coal, oil, gas, and uranium in terms of extraction cost curves. Fossil resources (e.g., oil, coal, and gas) are further defined by decline rates and adjustment costs (Bauer et al. 2013). Extraction costs increase over time as low-cost deposits become exhausted (Herfindahl 1967; Rogner 1997; Aguilera et al. 2009; BGR 2010; Rogner et al. 2012). In REMIND, we use region-specific extraction cost curves that relate production cost increases to cumulative extraction (IHS CERA 2012; Rogner et al. 2012).


Figure 5<ref><xr id="fig:REMIND_5"/></ref> shows extraction cost curves at the global level as implemented for various SSPs. More details on the underlying data and method will be presented in a separate pape  (Bauer et al. under review). The default scenario used in REMIND is SSP2 (“Middle-of-the-Road”). In the model, these fossil extraction cost input data are approximated by piecewise linear functions that are employed for fossil resource extraction curves. Additionally, as a scenario choice, it is possible to make oil and gas extraction cost curves time dependent. This means that resources and costs may increase or decrease over time depending on expected future conditions such as technological and geopolitical changes.
<xr id="fig:REMIND_5"/> shows extraction cost curves at the global level as implemented for various SSPs. More details on the underlying data and method will be presented in a separate pape  (Bauer et al. under review). The default scenario used in REMIND is SSP2 (“Middle-of-the-Road”). In the model, these fossil extraction cost input data are approximated by piecewise linear functions that are employed for fossil resource extraction curves. Additionally, as a scenario choice, it is possible to make oil and gas extraction cost curves time dependent. This means that resources and costs may increase or decrease over time depending on expected future conditions such as technological and geopolitical changes.


For uranium, extraction costs follow a third-order polynomial parameterization. The amount of available uranium is limited to 23 Mt. This resource potential includes reserves, conventional resources, and a conservative estimate of unconventional resources (NEA 2009).
For uranium, extraction costs follow a third-order polynomial parameterization. The amount of available uranium is limited to 23 Mt. This resource potential includes reserves, conventional resources, and a conservative estimate of unconventional resources (NEA 2009).
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</figure>


'''Figure 5''': Global aggregate Cumulative Availability Curves of coal, oil and gas for the different SSPs. The bars at the top indicate the minimum, median and maximum extraction in baseline scenarios in the EMF-27 study; the shaded area covers the range of extraction cost functions given in the EMF-27 and AMPERE studies.
'''Figure 1''': Global aggregate Cumulative Availability Curves of coal, oil and gas for the different SSPs. The bars at the top indicate the minimum, median and maximum extraction in baseline scenarios in the EMF-27 study; the shaded area covers the range of extraction cost functions given in the EMF-27 and AMPERE studies.


Trade costs in REMIND are both region-and resource-specific. Oil trade costs range between 0.22 USD/GJ in AFR and 0.63 USD/GJ in EUR. Gas trade costs are lowest in EUR and JPN with a value of 1.52 USD/GJ and reach a maximum in CHN with a value of 2.16 USD/GJ. Coal trade costs range between 0.54 USD/GJ in JPN and 0.95 USD/GJ in IND.
Trade costs in REMIND are both region-and resource-specific. Oil trade costs range between 0.22 USD/GJ in AFR and 0.63 USD/GJ in EUR. Gas trade costs are lowest in EUR and JPN with a value of 1.52 USD/GJ and reach a maximum in CHN with a value of 2.16 USD/GJ. Coal trade costs range between 0.54 USD/GJ in JPN and 0.95 USD/GJ in IND.

Revision as of 16:27, 1 February 2017

Model Documentation - REMIND-MAgPIE

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany, https://www.pik-potsdam.de.
Solution concept General equilibrium (closed economy)MAgPIE: partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector;
Solution method OptimizationMAgPIE: cost minimization;
Anticipation

Exhaustible resources

REMIND characterizes exhaustible resources such as coal, oil, gas, and uranium in terms of extraction cost curves. Fossil resources (e.g., oil, coal, and gas) are further defined by decline rates and adjustment costs (Bauer et al. 2013). Extraction costs increase over time as low-cost deposits become exhausted (Herfindahl 1967; Rogner 1997; Aguilera et al. 2009; BGR 2010; Rogner et al. 2012). In REMIND, we use region-specific extraction cost curves that relate production cost increases to cumulative extraction (IHS CERA 2012; Rogner et al. 2012).

<xr id="fig:REMIND_5"/> shows extraction cost curves at the global level as implemented for various SSPs. More details on the underlying data and method will be presented in a separate pape (Bauer et al. under review). The default scenario used in REMIND is SSP2 (“Middle-of-the-Road”). In the model, these fossil extraction cost input data are approximated by piecewise linear functions that are employed for fossil resource extraction curves. Additionally, as a scenario choice, it is possible to make oil and gas extraction cost curves time dependent. This means that resources and costs may increase or decrease over time depending on expected future conditions such as technological and geopolitical changes.

For uranium, extraction costs follow a third-order polynomial parameterization. The amount of available uranium is limited to 23 Mt. This resource potential includes reserves, conventional resources, and a conservative estimate of unconventional resources (NEA 2009).

REMIND prescribes decline rates for the extraction of coal, oil, and gas. In the case of oil and gas, these are dynamic extraction constraints based on data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA 2008a; IEA 2009). An additional dynamic constraint limits the extraction growth of coal, oil, and gas to 10% per year. In addition, we use adjustment costs to represent short-term price markups resulting from rapid expansion of resource production (Dahl and Duggan 1998; Krichene 2002; Askari and Krichene 2010).

<figure id="fig:REMIND_5"> File:Figure Fossil energy resources REMIND.png </figure>

Figure 1: Global aggregate Cumulative Availability Curves of coal, oil and gas for the different SSPs. The bars at the top indicate the minimum, median and maximum extraction in baseline scenarios in the EMF-27 study; the shaded area covers the range of extraction cost functions given in the EMF-27 and AMPERE studies.

Trade costs in REMIND are both region-and resource-specific. Oil trade costs range between 0.22 USD/GJ in AFR and 0.63 USD/GJ in EUR. Gas trade costs are lowest in EUR and JPN with a value of 1.52 USD/GJ and reach a maximum in CHN with a value of 2.16 USD/GJ. Coal trade costs range between 0.54 USD/GJ in JPN and 0.95 USD/GJ in IND.

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