Uranium and other fissile resources - REMIND-MAgPIE: Difference between revisions

From IAMC-Documentation
Jump to navigation Jump to search
No edit summary
m (Text replacement - "REMIND" to "REMIND-MAgPIE")
 
(31 intermediate revisions by 3 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
{{ModelDocumentationTemplate
{{ModelDocumentationTemplate
|IsDocumentationOf=REMIND
|IsEmpty=No
|IsDocumentationOf=REMIND-MAgPIE
|DocumentationCategory=Uranium and other fissile resources
|DocumentationCategory=Uranium and other fissile resources
}}
}}
== Exhaustible resources ==
A comparison of regularly up-dated assessments of global uranium availability is given in <xr id="fig:REMIND-MAgPIE_1"/>. Conventional identified resources of uranium are differentiated into recovery cost categories. The assessment by the Nuclear Energy Agency <ref>Nuclear Energy Agency NEA (2010): Uranium 2009. Resources, Production, and Demand. Nuclear Energy Agency and Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris, France.</ref> comprises 6.3Mt of uranium, which equals approximately one hundred times current reactor requirements. The estimates of World Energy Council <ref>World Energy Council WEC (2010): 2010 Survey of energy resources. London, UK.</ref> and German Geological Survey <ref>Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe BGR (2010): Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen. Hannover, Germany.</ref> mainly rely on the numbers of NEA but apply different interpretations for identified uranium resources. The more uncertain category of conventional undiscovered uranium resources are also assessed differently by the three institutions.


REMIND characterizes exhaustible resources such as coal, oil, gas, and uranium in terms of extraction cost curves. Fossil resources (e.g., oil, coal, and gas) are further defined by decline rates and adjustment costs (Bauer et al. 2013). Extraction costs increase over time as low-cost deposits become exhausted (Herfindahl 1967; Rogner 1997; Aguilera et al. 2009; BGR 2010; Rogner et al. 2012). In REMIND, we use region-specific extraction cost curves that relate production cost increases to cumulative extraction (IHS CERA 2012; Rogner et al. 2012).
For the default version the assumption is that 23MtUr are ultimately available with increasing extraction costs up to 260$US per tUr. The implementation uses a quadratic extraction cost function for each region that starts at 25US$ per kg uranium and cuts off at the same marginal costs (300$US per kg uranium), if - at the global level - 23MtUr are reached. The shape parameter of the regional extraction cost functions depend on the regional availability of uranium resources. The default version does not represent reprocessing and fast breeding reactors integrated into the nuclear fuel cycle. Given the optimistic assessment of uranium resources this assumption is economically reasonable in the near-term<ref>Bunn M, Holdren JP, Fetter S, van der Zwaan BCC (2005): The economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel. Nuclear Technology 150:209-30.</ref>.


Piecewise linear functions are employed for fossil resource extraction curves, while uranium extraction costs follow a third-order polynomial parameterization. Additionally, as a scenario choice, it is possible to make oil and gas extraction cost curves time dependent. This means that resources and costs may increase or decrease over time depending on expected future conditions such as technological and geopolitical changes. The amount of available uranium is limited to 23 Mt. This resource potential includes reserves, conventional resources, and a conservative estimate of unconventional resources (NEA 2009).
'''Figure 1'''. Overview of assessments on global uranium in Mt uranium. Identified resources are differentiated by cost categories; undiscovered resources are differentiated by geological certainty.


REMIND prescribes decline rates for the extraction of coal, oil, and gas. In the case of oil and gas, these are dynamic extraction constraints based on data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA 2008; IEA 2009). An additional dynamic constraint limits the extraction growth of coal, oil, and gas to 10% per year. In addition, we ues adjustment costs to represent short-term price markups resulting from rapid expansion of resource production (Dahl and Duggan 1998; Krichene 2002; Askari and Krichene 2010).
<figure id="fig:REMIND-MAgPIE_1">
[[File: Table uranium.jpeg.JPG|450px]]
</figure>


Trade costs are both region -and resource-specific. Oil trade costs range between 0.22 USD/GJ in AFR and 0.63 USD/GJ in EUR. Gas trade costs are lowest in EUR and JPN with a value of 1.52 USD/GJ and reach a maximum in CHN with a value of 2.16 USD/GJ. Coal trade costs range between 0.54 USD/GJ in JPN and 0.95 USD/GJ in IND.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
<references />

Latest revision as of 15:34, 21 November 2021

Model Documentation - REMIND-MAgPIE

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany, https://www.pik-potsdam.de.
Solution concept General equilibrium (closed economy)MAgPIE: partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector;
Solution method OptimizationMAgPIE: cost minimization;
Anticipation

A comparison of regularly up-dated assessments of global uranium availability is given in <xr id="fig:REMIND-MAgPIE_1"/>. Conventional identified resources of uranium are differentiated into recovery cost categories. The assessment by the Nuclear Energy Agency [1] comprises 6.3Mt of uranium, which equals approximately one hundred times current reactor requirements. The estimates of World Energy Council [2] and German Geological Survey [3] mainly rely on the numbers of NEA but apply different interpretations for identified uranium resources. The more uncertain category of conventional undiscovered uranium resources are also assessed differently by the three institutions.

For the default version the assumption is that 23MtUr are ultimately available with increasing extraction costs up to 260$US per tUr. The implementation uses a quadratic extraction cost function for each region that starts at 25US$ per kg uranium and cuts off at the same marginal costs (300$US per kg uranium), if - at the global level - 23MtUr are reached. The shape parameter of the regional extraction cost functions depend on the regional availability of uranium resources. The default version does not represent reprocessing and fast breeding reactors integrated into the nuclear fuel cycle. Given the optimistic assessment of uranium resources this assumption is economically reasonable in the near-term[4].

Figure 1. Overview of assessments on global uranium in Mt uranium. Identified resources are differentiated by cost categories; undiscovered resources are differentiated by geological certainty.

<figure id="fig:REMIND-MAgPIE_1"> Table uranium.jpeg.JPG </figure>








  1. ↑ Nuclear Energy Agency NEA (2010): Uranium 2009. Resources, Production, and Demand. Nuclear Energy Agency and Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development. Paris, France.
  2. ↑ World Energy Council WEC (2010): 2010 Survey of energy resources. London, UK.
  3. ↑ Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe BGR (2010): Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen. Hannover, Germany.
  4. ↑ Bunn M, Holdren JP, Fetter S, van der Zwaan BCC (2005): The economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel. Nuclear Technology 150:209-30.
Retrieved from "https://www.iamcdocumentation.eu/index.php?title=Uranium_and_other_fissile_resources_-_REMIND-MAgPIE&oldid=15221"