Population - TIAM-UCL
|Institution||University College London (UCL), UK, https://www.ucl.ac.uk.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Solution method||Linear optimisation|
(Stochastic and myopic runs are also possible)
Population figures up to 2050 are based on UN estimations (UN, 2009). It is assumed that world population will increase from 6.7 billion people in 2005 to 9.3 billion people in 2050, reach the peak in 2090 with 9.8 billion and then decline slightly.
The biggest population increase over the 21st century is expected to happen in Africa, India, Other Developing Asia and the Middle East .
Under the given assumptions China, Eastern Europe, Former Soviet Union, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Western Europe experience negative population growth rates in the second half of the 21st century.
Especially for South Korea and Japan, it is assumed that the population will shrink significantly over the course of the 21st century.
We are also able to run the various Shared Socio-economic (SSP) pathway scenarios 1 in TIAM-UCL. The standard TIAM-UCL population assumption is around halfway between SSP3 and SSP2 for population.
The number of households is based on population estimates and occupancy rate. There exists no database for the occupancy rate for each region in the TIAM-UCL model. Therefore, the numbers in this section rely on national statistics. There are forecasts for the average household occupancy for some countries for the near future (up to 2030) from which it is possible estimate the number of households (given assumptions on population). For the longer term, it is assumed that the occupancy rate will increase in line with historic data to 1.7 to 3 persons per household, depending on the region. The reason for this range is the difference in current average persons per household, e.g. in 2005 the average Indian household consisted of 5.3 persons, while the average Western European household consisted of 2.1 persons per household.
Given these assumptions, the total number of households globally increases from 1.9 billion in 2005 to 3.4 billion in 2050 to 5.1 billion in 2100.
In order to simplify the data needed for the calculation, characteristic countries have been chosen for regions that consist of more than two countries. Those are South Africa for Africa, Brazil for Central and South America, Poland for Eastern Europe, Russia for Former Soviet Union, Iran for Middle East, Indonesia for Other Developing Asia and Germany for Western Europe.