Temporal dimension - MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
|Institution||International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, http://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at.|
|Solution concept||General equilibrium (closed economy)|
MESSAGEix models the time horizon from 2010 to 2110, generally in 10-year periods (2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110), using 2010 as the base year. The 2020 period is partly calibrated so far, with some recent trends included in this time period, but some flexibility remains. The reporting years are the final years in periods, which implies that investments that lead to the capacity in the reporting year are the average annual investments over the entire period the reporting year belongs to. In some model versions, the model has been calibrated to 2015, running with 5-year modeling periods to roughly the middle of the century (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055, 2060) and 10-year periods between 2060 and 2110.
MESSAGEix can both operate perfect foresight over the entire time horizon, limited foresight (e.g., two or three periods into the future) or myopically, optimizing one period at a time (Keppo and Strubegger, 2010 1). Most frequently MESSAGEix is run with perfect foresight, but for specific applications such as delayed participation in a global climate regime without anticipation (Krey and Riahi, 2009 2; O'Neill et al., 2010 3), limited foresight is used.
GLOBIOM models the time horizon from 2000 to 2100 in 10-year time steps (2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100), with the year 2000 as the base year. The model is recursive-dynamic, i.e. it is solved for each period individually and then passes on results to the subsequent periods. The linkage between MESSAGEix and GLOBIOM relies on the model results of the periods 2020 to 2100.
- Ilkka Keppo, Manfred Strubegger (2010). Short term decisions for long term problems–The effect of foresight on model based energy systems analysis. Energy, 35 (5), 2033--2042. |
- Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi (2009). Implications of delayed participation and technology failure for the feasibility, costs, and likelihood of staying below temperature targets—Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for the 21st century. Energy Economics, 31 (), S94--S106. |
- Brian C O’Neill, Keywan Riahi, Ilkka Keppo (2010). Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107 (3), 1011--1016. |