Model scope and methods - PROMETHEUS
The PROMETHEUS model provides detailed projections of energy demand, supply, power generation mix, energy-related carbon emissions, energy prices and investment to the future covering the global energy system. PROMETHEUS is a fully fledged energy demand and supply simulation model aiming at addressing energy system analysis, energy price projections, power generation planning and climate change mitigation policies. PROMETHEUS contains relations and/or exogenous variables for all the main quantities, which are of interest in the context of general energy systems analysis. These include demographic and economic activity indicators, primary and final energy consumption by main fuel, fuel resources and prices, CO2 emissions, greenhouse gases concentrations and technology dynamics (for power generation, road transport, hydrogen production and industrial and residential end-use technologies).
PROMETHEUS quantifies CO2 emissions and incorporates environmentally oriented emission abatement technologies (including renewable energy, electric vehicles, Carbon Capture and Storage, energy efficiency, electrification, green hydrogen, advanced biofuels) and energy and climate policy instruments. The latter include both market based instruments such as cap and trade systems with differential application per region and sector specific policies and measures focusing on specific carbon emitting activities. Key characteristics of the model, that are particularly pertinent for performing the analysis of the implications of alternative climate abatement scenarios, include world supply/demand resolution for determining the prices of internationally traded fuels and technology dynamics mechanisms for simulating spill-over effects for technological improvements (increased uptake of a new technology in one part of the world leads to improvements through learning by experience which eventually benefits the energy systems in other parts of the World). PROMETHEUS is designed to provide medium and long term energy system projections and system restructuring up to 2050 (and 2100), both in the energy demand and the supply sides. The model produces analytical quantitative results in the form of detailed energy balances in the period 2015 to 2050 annually (to be expanded to 2100). The model can support impact assessment of specific energy and environment policies and measures, applied at regional and global level, including price signals, such as taxation, subsidies, technology and energy efficiency promoting policies, RES supporting policies, environmental policies and technology standards.
The PROMETHEUS model is organized in sub-models (modules), each one representing the behaviour of a representative agent, a demander and/or a supplier of energy. The figure below presents a simplified summary flow chart of the PROMETHEUS model. The main modules are:
1) The demographic and economic activity module, which projects population and activity growth for each region.
2) The fossil fuel supply module that includes oil and gas resources, while coal is assumed to have abundant supplies relative to production prospects at least for the projection time horizon
3) The biomass supply module, which contains technical and economic potential for biomass per region and their effects on biomass costs.
4) The cost-supply curves for renewable energy sources (RES) module.
5) The fuel prices module projecting both international and final consumer prices, with the latter being differentiated for each demand sector. Global fossil fuel prices are determined from the equilibrium of fuel demand and supply at the global level.
6) The final energy demand module, projecting energy demand and fuel mix in three main sectors; industry, transport and residential/services/agriculture sector. The following energy forms are considered as options in the final demand sectors: natural gas, oil, coal, biofuels, electricity, steam and hydrogen. The private passenger cars sector is modelled in detail, by distinguishing the following types of passenger cars: internal combustion engine cars (using gasoline, diesel, biofuels or hydrogen as a fuel), conventional and plug-in hybrids, electric cars and fuel-cell cars (using hydrogen or gasoline as a fuel).
7) The electricity generation module, identifying 26 power generation technologies and their competition to cover electricity demand for base, medium and peak load.
8) The hydrogen production sub-model, identifying 18 hydrogen production options
9)The hydrogen storage and delivery module, including 16 different technological options in order to represent in detail the development of hydrogen infrastructure.
10) The technology dynamics module, which endogenises technical progress through both learning by research and learning by experience (“learning by doing”) mechanisms.
11) The technology diffusion module incorporating network effects accelerating spillovers between regions in cases where technology uptake attains critical levels
|No previous version available|
|Institution||E3Modelling (E3M), Greece, https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Anticipation||Energy system simulation.Foresight is included only is some sub-modules (i.e. electricity generation)|