Model Documentation - PROMETHEUS

Note: The documentation of PROMETHEUS is 'under review' and is not yet 'published'!

Model Documentation - PROMETHEUS
Corresponding documentation
AIM-Hub BLUES C3IAM COFFEE-TEA DNE21+ GCAM GEM-E3 GRACE IFs IMACLIM IMAGE MESSAGE-GLOBIOM POLES PROMETHEUS TIAM-UCL WITCH WITNESS
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Model information
Model link	https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools/prometheus/
Institution	E3Modelling (E3M), Greece, https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools.
Solution concept	Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method	Simulation
Anticipation	Energy system simulation.Foresight is included only is some sub-modules (i.e. electricity generation)

Introduction

The PROMETHEUS model provides detailed projections of energy demand, supply, power generation mix, energy-related carbon emissions, energy prices and investment to the future covering the global energy system. PROMETHEUS is a fully fledged energy demand and supply simulation model aiming at addressing energy system analysis, energy price projections, power generation planning and climate change mitigation policies. PROMETHEUS contains relations and/or exogenous variables for all the main quantities, which are of interest in the context of general energy systems analysis. These include demographic and economic activity indicators, primary and final energy consumption by main fuel, fuel resources and prices, CO2 emissions, greenhouse gases concentrations and technology dynamics (for power generation, road transport, hydrogen production and industrial and residential end-use technologies).

PROMETHEUS quantifies CO2 emissions and incorporates environmentally oriented emission abatement technologies (like RES, electric vehicles, CCS, energy efficiency) and policy instruments. The latter include both market based instruments such as cap and trade systems with differential application per region and sector specific policies and measures focusing on specific carbon emitting activities. Key characteristics of the model, that are particularly pertinent for performing the analysis of the implications of alternative climate abatement scenarios, include world supply/demand resolution for determining the prices of internationally traded fuels and technology dynamics mechanisms for simulating spill-over effects for technological improvements (increased uptake of a new technology in one part of the world leads to improvements through learning by experience which eventually benefits the energy systems in other parts of the World).

PROMETHEUS is designed to provide medium and long term energy system projections and system restructuring up to 2050, both in the demand and the supply sides. The model produces analytical quantitative results in the form of detailed energy balances in the period 2015 to 2050 annually. The model can support impact assessment of specific energy and environment policies and measures, applied at regional and global level, including price signals, such as taxation, subsidies, technology and energy efficiency promoting policies, RES supporting policies, environmental policies and technology standards.

PROMETHEUS is a self-contained large-scale world energy demand and supply model consisting of a large set of equations describing the time evolution of key variables, which are of interest in the context of a general analysis of the energy-environment-economic system. The model can be used either in its deterministic or in its stochastic mode. Equations in PROMETHEUS represent the model’s endogenous variables as a function of other endogenous variables, exogenous variables, parameters and residual terms. PROMETHEUS incorporates a recursive dynamic (partial equilibrium energy system) model with annual resolution currently serviced to run up to the year 2050 (the process to extend model horizon to 2100 is ongoing). The PROMETHEUS model has a triangular structure in order to avoid contemporaneous simultaneity. On the other hand, simultaneity is modelled through lagged instances of endogenous variables. Most of the model equations are specified in difference terms in order to avoid excessive early variability and adequately represent accumulation of uncertainty in the longer term.

The model simulates both demand and supply of energy, interacting with each other to form market equilibrium at different regional scales: detailed regional balances are aggregated in order to simulate world energy markets. Apart from international fuel prices, regional energy systems influence each other particularly through trade, technical progress and network effects including changing patterns of consumption and spillover effects with regard to technology diffusion.

The geographical representation is based on the importance of countries in energy consumption and GHG emissions. PROMETHEUS describes full energy and emissions balances for 10 geographical units, in particular for: China, India, North America (USA and Canada), OECD Pacific (Japan, S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand), EU-28, CIS (Russian Federation and other Commonwealth of Independent States), MENA (Middle East and North Africa), EMRG (Emerging economies) and RESTW (Rest of the world).

The model runs with a 1 year time step, usually from 2018 to 2050, the 2015-2018 period being almost entirely set by data and used for calibration. The model horizon will be expanded to 2100.

PROMETHEUS model is organized in sub-models (modules), each one representing the behaviour of a representative agent, a demander and/or a supplier of energy. The figure below presents a simplified summary flow chart of the PROMETHEUS model. The main modules are:

1) The demographic and economic activity module, which projects population and activity growth for each region.

2) The fossil fuel supply module that includes oil and gas resources, while coal is assumed to have abundant supplies relative to production prospects at least for the projection time horizon

3) The biomass supply module, which contains technical and economic potential for biomass per region and their effects on biomass costs.

4) The cost-supply curves for renewable energy sources (RES) module.

5) The fuel prices module projecting both international and final consumer prices, with the latter being differentiated for each demand sector. Global fossil fuel prices are determined from the equilibrium of demand and supply of each fuel at the global level.

6) The final energy demand module, projecting energy demand and fuel mix in three main sectors; industry, transport and residential/services/agriculture sector. The following energy forms are considered as options in the final demand sectors: natural gas, oil, coal, biofuels, electricity, steam and hydrogen. The private passenger cars sector is modelled in detail, by distinguishing the following types of passenger cars: internal combustion engine cars (using gasoline, diesel, biofuels or hydrogen as a fuel), conventional and plug-in hybrids, electric cars and fuel-cell cars (using hydrogen or gasoline as a fuel).

7) The electricity generation module, identifying 26 power generation technologies and their competition to cover electricity demand for base, medium and peak load.

8) The hydrogen production sub-model, identifying 18 hydrogen production options

9)The hydrogen storage and delivery module, including 16 different technological options in order to represent in detail the development of hydrogen infrastructure.

10) The technology dynamics module, which endogenises technical progress through both learning by research and learning by experience (“learning by doing”) mechanisms.

12) The technology diffusion module incorporating network effects accelerating spillovers between regions in cases where technology uptake attains critical levels

PROMETHEUS modules

Table of contents

Model scope and methods

• Model concept, solver and details
• Temporal dimension
• Spatial dimension
• Policy

Socio-economic drivers

• Population
• Economic activity

Macro-economy

• Production system and representation of economic sectors
• Capital and labour markets
• Monetary instruments
• Trade
• Technological change

Energy

• Energy resource endowments
  • Fossil energy resources
  • Uranium and other fissile resources
  • Bioenergy
  • Non-biomass renewables

• Energy conversion
  • Electricity
  • Heat
  • Gaseous fuels
  • Liquid fuels
  • Solid fuels
  • Grid, pipelines and other infrastructure
  • Energy end-use
  • Transport
  • Residential and commercial sectors
  • Industrial sector
  • Other end-use

• Energy demand
• Technological change in energy

Land-use

• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Land-use change
• Bioenergy land-use
• Other land-use
• Agricultural demand
• Technological change in land-use

Emissions

• GHGs
• Pollutants and non-GHG forcing agents
• Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options

Climate

• Modelling of climate indicators
• Climate damages, temperature changes

Non-climate sustainability dimension

• Air pollution and health
• Water
• Other materials
• Other sustainability dimensions

Appendices

• Mathematical model description
• Data