Data - POLES

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Model Documentation - POLES
Corresponding documentation
Model information
Institution JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles.
main users: - European Commission, JRC

- Universite de Grenoble UPMF, France - Enerdata

Solution concept
Solution method
Anticipation Myopic

Synthetic view of POLES data sources:

Macro-economic drivers

Population

  • UN (2015, medium fertility)

GDP

  • World Bank (2015), EC (2015), IMF (2016), OECD (2013, see also Dellink et al. 2014)

Value added

  • World Bank (2015); projection endogenous

Mobility, vehicles, households, tons of steel

  • Sectoral databases; projections endogenous


Energy resources

Oil, gas, coal

  • BGR (2014), USGS (2013), WEC (2013), sectoral databases

Uranium

  • OECD (2014)

Biomass

  • EU: Green-X model1
  • Non-EU: GLOBIOM model

Hydro

  • Enerdata (2015)

Wind, solar

  • NREL (2013), Pietzcker (2014)


Energy balances

Reserves, production

  • BP (2015), Enerdata (2015), IEA (2015); projections endogenous

Demand by sector and fuel, transformation (including. power), losses

  • Enerdata (2015), IEA (2015); projections endogenous


Energy prices

International energy prices, prices to consumer

  • EIA (2016), Enerdata (2015), IEA (2015); projections endogenous


GHG emissions

Energy CO2

  • Derived from energy balances; endogenous

Other GHG Annex 1

  • UNFCCC (2015); projections endogenous, and derived from data from GLOBIOM

Other GHG Non-Annex 1 (excl. LULUCF)

  • EDGAR1; projections endogenous, and derived from data from GLOBIOM

LULUCF Non-Annex 1

  • FAO (2015); projections endogenous, and derived from data from GLOBIOM


Technology costs

The model's learning curves based on literature, including but not only: EC JRC (2014), IEA Technology Roadmaps, WEC (2013), TECHPOL database (developed in several European research projects: SAPIENT, SAPIENTIA, CASCADE MINTS - see for instance: [1])

References

  1. ^  Kitous A., Keramidas K. (2014). Analysis of scenarios integrating the INDCs. [1]. Seville, Spain: European Commission - Joint Research Centre.