Economic activity - POLES
|Model link||http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles; https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/poles-jrc-model-documentation-0|
|Institution||JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Solution method||SimulationRecursive simulation|
GDP is exogenous and is derived from various international sources1. Latest work used GDP assumptions from:
- latest IMF forecasts 2 (for the short run)
- EU Ageing Report3, OECD45, MIT and CEPII forecasts (for the longer run)
Consistency with population is checked.
An on-going work will allow to connect POLES to the macro-econometric model MAGE (CEPII institute / JRC) through an energy factor in the production function that will link dynamically GDP, energy intensity and energy prices.
All other economic activities variables (value added, mobility, surfaces, ...) are endogenously calculated in POLES.
- World data bank, World development indicators. World Bank. 2015.  | |
- World Economic Outlook. International Monetary Fund. 2016.  | |
- DG ECFIN (2015). The 2015 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the 28 EU Member States (2013-2060). . Brussels, Belgium: European Commission. | |
- Economic Outlook No 93, Long term Baseline Projections. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. June 2013.  | |
- Rob Dellink, Ramiro Parrado, Kelly de Bruin, Elisa Lanzi, Jean Château, Francesco Bosello (2014). Consequences of Climate Change Damages for Economic Growth. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, (). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jz2bxb8kmf3-en | |