Fossil energy resources - POLES
|Model Documentation - POLES|
|Institution||JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Solution method||SimulationRecursive simulation|
The POLES model differentiates various types of fossil fuels:
- oil: conventional, tar, heavy and oil shale / onland & shallow, deepwater, artic;
- gas: conventional, shale gas / onland & shallow, deepwater and artic;
- coal: steam and coke.
The description below gives elements for oil, but they can be extended to gas and coal.
While this figure gives an aggregated static cost curve, the model actually uses dynamic cost curve per resource type integrating the cost of energy needs for production for each production country/ region. Consequently POLES fossil fuel cost curves thus evolve over time, by region and with the scenario settings (for instance: a CO2 pricing will affect the production cost of tar sands).
The supply module transforms resources into reserves through discovery effort (exploration and drilling) that depends on remaining resources, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuel prices, through elasticities that capture openness to investment and resource management strategies.
Reserves are then turn into production depending on remaining reserves, the (dynamic) production cost curve and international fuels prices.
- Nico Bauer, Valentina Bosetti, Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, Alban Kitous, David McCollum, Aurélie Méjean, Shilpa Rao, Hal Turton, Leonidas Paroussos, Shuichi Ashina, Katherine Calvin, Kenichi Wada, Detlef van Vuuren (2015). CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90 (), 243-256. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.009 | | |
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- Philip Andrews-Speed, Coby van der Linde, Kimon Keramidas (2014). Conflict and cooperation over access to energy: Implications for a low-carbon future. Futures, 58 (), 103-114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.12.007 |
- David McCollum, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Alban Kitous, Keywan Riahi (2013). Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds. Climatic Change, 123 (), 413-426. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0939-5 |
- Kitous A, Saveyn B, Gervais S, Wiesenthal T, Soria Ramirez A (2013). Analysis of Iran Oil Embargo. . Seville, Spain: European Commission - Joint Research Centre. |
- Energy Study 2015. Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources. 2015.  |
- World Petroleum Assessment. US Geological Survey. 2013. ,  |
- IEA online energy statistics. International Energy Agency. 2015.  |
- Global Energy & CO2 Data. Enerdata. 2015.  |
- World Energy Resources, 2013 Survey. World Energy Council. 2013.  |