Production system and representation of economic sectors - POLES
|Institution||JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Solution method||SimulationRecursive simulation|
All economic activity variables are endogenously derived from GDP per capita and energy prices. The energy demand in POLES is endogenously derived from sector-specific drivers: economic activity, end-user energy prices and policies, including time lagged effects. The modeling also considers vintage and fuel / technology substitution constraints.
The model differentiates the following sectors:
- Agriculture (economic activity: value added)
- Industry (value added and physical production), with 4 sub-sectors:
- Steel, Chemistry, Non-metallic minerals and Other industry; energy uses and non-energy uses of fuels are differentiated.
- Services (value added): substitutable energy and captive electricity needs are differentiated
- Residential (surface, occupation rate): needs for space heating, water heating, space cooling, cooking, appliances and lighting are differentiated
- Transport (mobility), with 4 sub-sectors:
- Road, Rail, Water, Air; additionally, international maritime bunkers and international air bunkers are differentiated.
- The model differentiates passengers and goods transport, and various transport types: car, motorbikes, light duty vehicle, heavy duty vehicles.
- Road vehicles are differentiated by engine (ICE, electric, hybrids, fuel cell) and fuel (oil products, biofuels, electricity, hydrogen, gas).
- In addition, own-energy uses and losses in transformation (power, synthetic fuels, ..) are explicitly considered.
Historical data on energy demand, activity variables and fuel prices are updated at least once a year from various sources. Energy demand and prices come mostly from: Eurostat, IEA, Enerdata. Energy demand data can be available up to year-1.
Behavioral changes is captured in 2 ways in POLES:
- a change of the economic activity (applies to Residential and Transport): this change depends on income and energy prices through appropriate elasiticies;
- a change in the rate of use of energy consuming equipment: this change depend on energy prices through short-term elasticities.