Residential and commercial sectors - POLES
|Institution||JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Solution method||SimulationRecursive simulation|
In POLES the energy demand in the residential building sector depends on the building stock and the fuel prices. The building stock is based on the evolution of surface needs, which depend on number of persons per household and on the surface per dwelling, both dependent on income per capita. The module simulates the need for new surface, considering lifetime of existing buildings. In addition it calculates an amount of renovated buildings in the existing stock.
Energy demand is grouped into several energy services. For each service, a useful energy need is calculated; it is then converted into final energy demand with competition between fuels. The competition across fuels (logit) is based on total cost for the user (fixed cost, fuel utilization efficiency), it is constrained by the lifetime of the existing equipment, and is calibrated on historical data of energy demand and prices. The following services are modelled:
- Space heating: depend on surfaces, energy prices and HDD (heating degree-days). Final energy demand is split into three sub-categories representing the diffusion of 3 building types of different levels of insulation (applying to new and renovated surfaces).
- Water heating: depend on surfaces, energy prices and HDD.
- Cooking: depend on surfaces and energy prices.
- Space cooling: final demand of electricity directly calculated, based on diffusion of air conditioning equipment (depends on income, CDD) and efficiency of use (depends on income, CDD (cooling degree-days), electricity prices and insulation).
- Appliances: final demand of electricity directly calculated, depends on income and electricity prices.
- Lighting: depend on surfaces, electricity prices.
Additionally, the contribution of solar heating (in space and water heating) and of decentralized means of electricity production (heat and power cogeneration, decentralized PV or fuel cells) are taken into account: competition with other energy fuels or with grid electricity (based on relative cost for the consumer, including possible support schemes for some technologies). Coal and traditional biomass are phased out based on their low efficiency.
Fuels considered are: electricity, oil, gas, coal, modern biomass, traditional biomass, hydrogen, steam.
Electricity can be produced locally (with cogeneration, decentralized PV or fuel cells) and then competes with network electricity.
For the Services sector, the building stock is represented by sectoral value added. Similar to surfaces in the Residential sector, new surfaces and renovation of the existing stock is represented by shares of value added.
Energy demand is grouped into:
- Substitutable energy demand (heating, cooking, hot water): total theoretical energy demand depends on sectoral value added and average energy prices. The sectoral value added is split into 3 levels of energy efficiency to capture the diffusion of insulation technology that substitutes for final energy consumption (applying to new and renovated surfaces). Diffusion drivers are GDP per capita, energy cost for the user (investment, fuel price, subsidies) and investment in insulation. The competition across fuels (logit) is based on total cost for the user, and is constrained by the lifetime of the existing equipment; it is calibrated on historical data of energy demand and prices.
- Captive electricity: depends on total sectoral value added and electricity prices.
Solar heat, decentralized electricity production, coal and traditional biomass are represented in a similar way to Residential.
- Paul Dowling (2013). The impact of climate change on the European energy system. Energy Policy, 60 (), 406-417. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.093 |
- European Commission - Joint Research Centre (2014). Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II Project. . Brussels, Belgium: European Commission - Joint Research Centre. |