Socio-economic drivers - C3IAM
|Institution||Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology (CEEP-BIT), China, http://ceep.bit.edu.cn/english/.|
|Solution concept||General equilibrium (closed economy)|
Socio-economic drivers are typically informed by a scenario narrative that describes in qualitative terms the overall logic behind the scenarios . In C3IAM, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, see O’Neill et al. (2014) ) provide the overall scenario logic with which the main socio-economic drivers, i.e. population and GDP, have been quantified. SSPs have enriched the social economic background with a range of socioeconomic drivers’ projections (e.g., GDP, population, and urbanization rate). Previous studies such as O’Neill et al. (2014)  have presented narrative descriptions, which are a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, as well as environment and natural resources.
C3IAM’s default population projections are based on those of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The GDP scenarios are projected by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).These projections are available for all five different SSP scenarios. For default scenarios, C3IAM uses SSP2 data as they represent a middle-of-the road scenario.
- Brian C O’Neill, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Kristie L Ebi, Stephane Hallegatte, Timothy R Carter, Ritu Mathur, Detlef P van Vuuren, 2014. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic change 122, 387-400.