Transport - POLES

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Model Documentation - POLES
Corresponding documentation
Model information
Institution JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles.
Solution concept Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method SimulationRecursive simulation
Anticipation Myopic

Several modes are distinguished in the model (road, rail, water, air), for both passenger and goods transport.

Mobility depends on income and prices, with all steps (activity variables and unit consumptions) using specific equations and parameters. In particular, in the case of cars, the model uses the notion of "budgetary coefficient" that constraints the mobility (dynamic elasticities) through a maximum share of yearly income that can be dedicated to energy purchases.

Passenger mobility is the sum of individual modes, which are indirectly interdependant (though opposite behaviors to prices) and capped by saturation effects (max number of vehicles per capita, ..). Goods mobility is calculated at national level and then split across modes, apart from Maritime bunkers which is calculated only at Global level.

The competition across vehicle types (6 types of vehicles in cars and trucks: conventional ICE, electric, plugin hybrid, H2 fuel cell, H2 thermal, gas) uses a multinominal logit function that depends on the total cost for the user, considering fixed cost (investment, life-time, user discount rate) and variable cost (consumption per km, fuel price), and is constrained by infrastructure developments for refueling stations.

Fuel price (that affects mobility, consumption per unit and competition across technologies) includes end-user energy taxation policies, which include carbon prices.

Finally, biodiesel and bioethanol are differentiated, both capped by blending constraints depending on the oil products (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, heavy fuel).

The table below gives a general overview of the transport module in POLES.

Table 1: The transport module in POLES
Mobility Mode Vehicles/scope Fuel used Engines Activity Link to income Link to fuel prices
Passengers Road Cars Liquids (oil products, biofuels), electricity, gas, hydrogen ICE, hybrid, electric, CNG, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen thermal vehicles; mileage; occupation "+" "-"
Motorbikes Liquids ICE vehicles; mileage "+" "-"
Buses Liquids, electricity, gas, hydrogen ICE, hybrid, electric, CNG, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen thermal passenger-kilometers "+" "+"
Rail Oil products, electricity, coal passenger-kilometers "+"
Air National Liquids passenger-kilometers "+" "-"
International Liquids passenger-kilometers "+" "-"
Goods Road Heavy trucks Liquids, electricity, gas, hydrogen ICE, hybrid, electric, CNG, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen thermal ton-kilometres; mileage; load "+" "-"
Light trucks Liquids, electricity, gas, hydrogen ICE, hybrid, electric, CNG, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen thermal vehicles; mileage; load "+" "-"
Rail Liquids, electricity, coal ton-kilometres "+"
Waterways Oil products "+"
Maritime International Liquids ton-kilometres "+" "-"


Transport energy use and associated emissions in the context of climate mitigation strategies have been studied in the model in several publications12.

References

  1. ^  |  Christian Flachsland, Steffen Brunner, Ottmar Edenhofer, Felix Creutzig (2011). Climate policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade. Energy Policy, 39 (), 2100-2110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.053
  2. ^  |  Bastien Girod, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maria Grahn, Alban Kitous, Son H Kim, Page Kyle (2013). Climate impact of transportation A model comparison. Climatic Change, 118 (), 595-608. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0663-6