Transport - POLES
|Institution||JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.|
|Solution concept||Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)|
|Solution method||SimulationRecursive simulation|
Several modes are distinguished in the model (road, rail, water, air), for both passenger and goods transport.
Mobility depends on income and prices, with all steps (activity variables and unit consumptions) using specific equations and parameters. In particular, in the case of cars, the model uses the notion of "budgetary coefficient" that constraints the mobility (dynamic elasticities) through a maximum share of yearly income that can be dedicated to energy purchases.
Passenger mobility is the sum of individual modes, which are indirectly interdependant (though opposite behaviors to prices) and capped by saturation effects (max number of vehicles per capita, ..). Goods mobility is calculated at national level and then split across modes, apart from Maritime bunkers which is calculated only at Global level.
The competition across vehicle types (6 types of vehicles in cars and trucks: conventional ICE, electric, plugin hybrid, H2 fuel cell, H2 thermal, gas) uses a multinominal logit function that depends on the total cost for the user, considering fixed cost (investment, life-time, user discount rate) and variable cost (consumption per km, fuel price), and is constrained by infrastructure developments for refueling stations.
Fuel price (that affects mobility, consumption per unit and competition across technologies) includes end-user energy taxation policies, which include carbon prices.
Finally, biodiesel and bioethanol are differentiated, both capped by blending constraints depending on the oil products (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, heavy fuel).
The table below gives a general overview of the transport module in POLES.
|Mobility||Mode||Vehicles/scope||Fuel used||Engines||Activity||Link to income||Link to fuel prices|
|Passengers||Road||Cars||Liquids (oil products, biofuels), electricity, gas, hydrogen||ICE, hybrid, electric, CNG, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen thermal||vehicles; mileage; occupation||"+"||"-"|
|Buses||Liquids, electricity, gas, hydrogen||ICE, hybrid, electric, CNG, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen thermal||passenger-kilometers||"+"||"+"|
|Rail||Oil products, electricity, coal||passenger-kilometers||"+"|
|Goods||Road||Heavy trucks||Liquids, electricity, gas, hydrogen||ICE, hybrid, electric, CNG, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen thermal||ton-kilometres; mileage; load||"+"||"-"|
|Light trucks||Liquids, electricity, gas, hydrogen||ICE, hybrid, electric, CNG, hydrogen fuel cell, hydrogen thermal||vehicles; mileage; load||"+"||"-"|
|Rail||Liquids, electricity, coal||ton-kilometres||"+"|
- Christian Flachsland, Steffen Brunner, Ottmar Edenhofer, Felix Creutzig (2011). Climate policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade. Energy Policy, 39 (), 2100-2110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.053 |
- Bastien Girod, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Maria Grahn, Alban Kitous, Son H Kim, Page Kyle (2013). Climate impact of transportation A model comparison. Climatic Change, 118 (), 595-608. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0663-6 |