Model concept, solver and details - POLES: Difference between revisions

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POLES ('''Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems''') is a global recursive dynamic simulation model of the energy system allowing to simulate a wide range of energy policies, be they on the demand side or on the supply sector. It displays a high regional resolution and sectoral representation, and provide endogenous simulation of all steps of the energy system by vector and sector: final energy demand, transformation (including power generation), trade, primary supply, international and final user prices. Additional modules allow covering GHG emissions from industrial sources, and agriculture and land-use emissions are derived from a soft linkage with the GLOBIOM model. The economic decisions (investment and utilisation rate) are based on a myopic anticipation of future costs and constaints for the agent, considering vintage, resource potentials and other interia. The model is developed with the Vensim software.
POLES is a recursive dynamic simulation model. Variables are either calculated directly or are calculated based on the previous years' values, to which are applied the evolution of explanatory variables.


* The model describes full energy balances for 57 countries and regions covering the World, and primary supply for 80 countries / regions, as well as energy commodities trade and trade routes.
The economic decisions (investment and utilisation rate) are based on the current state of knowledge of parameters (costs of technologies, prices, ...) or with a myopic anticipation of future costs and constraints for the agent, also considering vintage, resource potentials and other inertia.
* It operates on a yearly time step and benefits from frequently updated databases, allowing it to capture the most recent developments of energy markets in various countries / regions.


<xr id="fig:POLES_1"/> below gives a schematic view of the POLES model. The red boxes are the main assumptions, calibration and scenario settings; the green box represents the energy balance resolution by country / region and the blue boxes represent the trade and key outputs (demand, supply, emissions).
The model does not use foresight but rather myopic anticipation. Some foresight can be forced by using alternative runs as input files.


<figure id="fig:POLES_1">
The model is developed on the [http://www.vensim.com/ Vensim] software.
[[File:36405496.png|none|500px|thumb|<caption>General scheme of POLES</caption>]]
</figure>
 
Key input assumptions are population and growth of GDP per capita. The economic activity is then derived by the model at sectoral level, depending on economic growth and energy prices: economic sector value added, passengers and goods mobility, building stocks, etc..
 
Other critical assumptions are energy resources by type and localisation.
 
The model does not use foresight but rather myopic anticipation. Some foresight can be forced by using alternative runs as input files.

Latest revision as of 17:56, 16 December 2016

Model Documentation - POLES

Corresponding documentation
Previous versions
Model information
Model link
Institution JRC - Joint Research Centre - European Commission (EC-JRC), Belgium, http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/.
Solution concept Partial equilibrium (price elastic demand)
Solution method SimulationRecursive simulation
Anticipation Myopic

POLES is a recursive dynamic simulation model. Variables are either calculated directly or are calculated based on the previous years' values, to which are applied the evolution of explanatory variables.

The economic decisions (investment and utilisation rate) are based on the current state of knowledge of parameters (costs of technologies, prices, ...) or with a myopic anticipation of future costs and constraints for the agent, also considering vintage, resource potentials and other inertia.

The model does not use foresight but rather myopic anticipation. Some foresight can be forced by using alternative runs as input files.

The model is developed on the Vensim software.

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